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“,”duration”:35,”description”:null,”author_name”:”Team Stream Now”,”article_type”:”uber_article”,”analytics”:”video_id”:17663,”title”:”Are UNC Tar Heels the Favorite to Return to Glory in 2017 NCAA Tournament?”,”stream”:”Hale Irwin”,”published_at”:”2017-03-15T21:45:43.150000″,”id”:”73275948-4c86-4206-b85a-9b6499b5cfdf”,”amp_url”:null,”ad_stitched_url”:null,”media_width”:null,”media_url”:null,”media_id”:null,”media_height”:null,”hook_type”:”photo”,”autoplay”:false,”url_hash”:”f4a3a768b0c15a8f15557ca57592f677c29200420b86c6b1ce439c02112e1a1c”,”url”:”http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2696443-ncaa-basketball-championship-2017-who-best-fits-the-blueprint-of-a-winner”,”updated_at”:”2017-03-16T17:29:40Z”,”tag”:”unique_name”:”mm-related-content”,”tag_id”:97782,”short_name”:”MM RC”,”logo”:”mm_related_content.png”,”display_name”:”MM Related Content”,”color2″:””,”color1″:””,”status”:”active”,”position”:null,”playlist_type”:”ts”,”playlist_id”:957201,”permalink”:”/articles/track/6440316434-who-best-fits-the-championship-blueprint”,”performed_by”:”gmarchetti@bleacherreport.com”,”original_url_hash”:67610800,”notification”:null,”is_locked”:false,”is_featured”:false,”internal_position”:”5.6132812500″,”id_str”:”6440316434″,”id”:6440316434,”href”:”http://djay.bleacherreport.com/playlists/mm-related-content_ts/tracks/6440316434″,”hide_from_regions”:[],”hidden_attributes”:[],”group_tags”:[],”expires_at”:null,”created_at”:”2017-03-15T14:53:21Z”,”content_type”:”external_article”,”content”:”title”:”Who Best Fits the Championship Blueprint?”,”thumbnail_url”:”https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/664/107/hi-res-6041a74ec022f0ce26ed2bf1eaca26ee_crop_exact.jpg?w=900&h=600&q=75″,”metadata”:”title”:”NCAA Basketball Championship 2017: Who Best Fits the Blueprint of a Winner?”,”thumbnail_url”:”https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/664/107/hi-res-6041a74ec022f0ce26ed2bf1eaca26ee_crop_exact.jpg?w=900&h=600&q=75″,”provider_url”:”http://bleacherreport.com”,”provider_name”:”Bleacher Report”,”photo_credit”:”Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports”,”description”:”

After four months of basketball, you would think that a team typically is what it is.

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This exercise is done to identify the traits of a national champion by studying past champs. I identified 10 criteria that most champions fall under and put the top four seeds in each region through the gamut to see who has that championship look.

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But the last three national champs have taught us that it’s apparently never too late to change.

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In 2014, Connecticut looked nothing like a title contender. Any Huskies fans who want to raise their hands and say “I picked them” weren’t living in reality. 

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The Huskies were such an outlier I made the decision to not even study their numbers. It was a freak accident, and it was to be treated as such.

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But the last two years have also been unusual in that one criteria the eventual champ fell well short of meeting in the regular season became a huge strength in the postseason.

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In 2015, Duke went from playing meh defense for four months to unleashing one of the stingiest defenses in the history of the tournament. The Blue Devils entered the tourney ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency and finished 12th. That sort of jump over six games just does not happen.

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Last season, Villanova shot a bunch of threes but wasn’t very accurate, entering the tourney making 34.4 percent from deep—37 percent is the target in the blueprint. Somehow, the Wildcats all turned into Stephen Curry and plowed through the bracket nailing exactly 50 percent of their threes.

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This is a long way of saying that the results of this exercise should be considered in picking the champ, but we should also consider the possibility a team somehow changes in the middle of March.

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I’m also 0-for-4 using this data to pick the title winner.

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Last season, the numbers loved Michigan State, which was only the second team in four years to hit all 10 criteria. Sparty, of course, lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee.

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But to justify the sake of this exercise, the numbers did like Louisville in 2013, Duke in 2015 and Villanova last year, so the data is worth running. At least, that’s what I keep telling myself.

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Here are the 10 qualifications, which I’ve adjusted slightly through the years based on rule changes and trends: 

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  • Head coach has reached an Elite Eight.
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  • Team won either its regular-season conference title or conference tournament. (This rule could get replaced next season. Before UConn in 2014, every champ since 1990 except Arizona in 1997 had won a league title. Then last year’s champ failed to do so as well, making this qualifier moot for two straight years. But since UConn in ’14 never happened, the blueprint is currently chalking Duke up as an outlier.)
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Shoots better than 37 percent from beyond the arc.
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  • Has at least three double-digit scorers. (Allow rounding, so 9.5-plus qualifies.)
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  • Has a frontcourt scorer who averages more than 12 points per game or will get picked in the first round of the NBA draft.
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  • Rebounds better than 34 percent of its misses on the offensive end. (The cutoff was 37 percent, but because offensive rebounding is less of a priority, the number has dropped. More on this later.)
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  • Holds opponents to less than 45 percent shooting inside the arc.
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  • Has a defensive free-throw rate better than 34 percent. (Free-throw rate is the number of free throws attempted per field-goal attempt.)
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A reminder that only top-four seeds qualify. Connecticut in 2014 is the only champ seeded below the four line in the last 28 years, and as it relates to this blueprint, that never happened.

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Pedigree Tests

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Gonzaga gets a lot of flack for never reaching the Final Four, but Mark Few has been to six Sweet 16s and reached the Elite Eight two years ago.

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Three of the five coaches who haven’t reached an Elite Eight—Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton, UCLA’s Steve Alford and Purdue’s Matt Painter—have at least been to a Sweet 16.

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Coaches with previous Final Four experience do seem to have an advantage. Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014).

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The conference champ test has not been as important the last few years. UConn was the first since Arizona in 1997 to win the title without winning its league’s regular season or postseason, and then Duke did the same the next year. (The Blue Devils did go 15-3 in the ACC that year and finished just one game back of Virginia.) Villanova, the 2016 Big East regular season champ, was a return to the norm last season.

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Offensive Footprint

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The 2014 Huskies are the only team to finish outside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in the KenPom.com era (since 2002), so this is one of the most important boxes to check.

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Louisville, Baylor, Purdue and Florida State all fall short here, but that could quickly change with just one efficient night scoring the ball in the tournament. West Virginia was in the top 20 most of the season and has fallen off as of late.

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The Mountaineers rely a lot on their defense to create easy scoring opportunities, and since most tourney teams haven’t ever seen their press, they could return to earlier season form, which was aided by transition opportunities created by live-ball turnovers.

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While overall efficiency is what matters most, a majority of champs get there with accurate three-point shooting, an ability to rebound misses, balanced scoring and at least one scoring big man.

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(Note: As college basketball has trended smaller, many teams employ a small-ball 4 who would typically play on the wing. Those mini 4s still qualify as big men for this test.)

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Kansas is the only team that hits on both marks for three-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Most teams are either-or. The Jayhawks get it done by putting four shooters on the perimeter and then camping center Landen Lucas near the bucket. Lucas, who isn’t that quick or explosive like most elite rebounders, does an excellent job tracking where misses are going to come off. Josh Jackson is also a sneaky offensive rebounder because he can cover ground so quickly.

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The Jayhawks are also a rarity because most teams aren’t able to successfully crash the offensive glass with just one or two guys. Most coaches either decide to send everyone but their point guard to the glass or ignore offensive rebounding almost entirely to get back in transition. And if I were to reevaluate the blueprint—another Michigan State-like pick and I might—the offensive rebounding test is one I might ditch. I lowered the number from 37 percent to 34 percent last year because offensive rebounding numbers have trended downward in recent years, and so many teams are abandoning the glass that it almost makes the category irrelevant.

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Villanova is one of those teams that sacrificed the offensive glass for getting back in transition, and for the second straight year, Jay Wright’s club doesn’t come close to hitting the mark.

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Defensive Footprint

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Are there any 2015 Dukes in this field? First, let’s look at the numbers.

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UCLA would be the most unexpected of the group to make a massive improvement on the defensive end. The Bruins have been trending in a better direction late in the season but it’s hard to see them committing to defense so much so that they become dominant.

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Duke held opponents to 90.1 points per 100 possessions in that tourney run. The only major-conference foe UCLA held below that mark this season was lifeless Washington twice, and one of those games was played without Markelle Fultz.

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Oregon, Florida State, North Carolina, Arizona, Kansas and Duke have the personnel to jump into the top 20.

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The Ducks are the best shot-blocking team in the country but are now without leading shot-blocker Chris Boucher. Florida State has the length and athletes to be nasty on the defensive end. It’s a surprise the Seminoles aren’t consistently there already. Arizona is strong on the perimeter and has a defensive-minded coach in Sean Miller, but its bigs are not as gifted defensively as past ‘Zona interior players.

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Kansas could be the best candidate to pull a Duke. The Jayhawks seem to pick their spots to defend, but this group has been elite before—ranking third in adjusted efficiency last year—and Josh Jackson is the X-factor that Duke had in Justise Winslow. Winslow was a beast on the defensive end in the tournament in 2015, flying all over the floor as a small-ball 4. Jackson is a similar force with the versatility and defensive range to cause havoc.

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And even Duke could pull a 2015 Duke, especially if Harry Giles becomes more of a factor. Giles has the ability to be a stud on the defensive end. He just has been slow to adjust and not super confident in his surgically-repaired knees. He was once expected to be the No. 1 pick in 2017, and he has flashed some of the old Giles lately. But Mike Krzyzewski is so committed to playing small that it could be difficult to find more minutes for Giles. That means Jayson Tatum needs to do his best to pull a Winslow. 

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Results

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The top seeds usually fare better than most, but there is more of a divide this season than in years past. The sum of criteria checked for the ones (34) is higher than any other year I’ve run the numbers with 2013 (32) coming closest. That year a No. 1 seed (Louisville) won the title.

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Villanova checks just as many boxes as last season, but this team is slightly different. Like last year, Wright’s team falls short on the offensive glass. The Wildcats this season shoot it better from deep—although the tourney version of Nova did so too—and their two-point defense, which hit the mark last season, is not nearly as stingy. That’s one reason I’m not sure the Wildcats are as set to go on a deep run. Daniel Ochefu offered rim protection that this team doesn’t have.

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The data likes both Kansas and Gonzaga, which makes me feel good because those are the teams I have in the championship game in my bracket. I quickly feel not so good when I remember how the blueprint has performed the last four years.

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The Zags only fall short on the offensive glass, and again, that’s probably the least important criteria. KU’s unchecked box (adjusted defensive efficiency) is a more glaring shortcoming and KU’s commitment to defense in the tournament could control its fate.

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If you’re picking Florida State, Florida, West Virginia or Butler to win the title, you may want to rethink that selection.

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The last thing that should be noted is that every year I’ve done this—sans 2014, the tournament that didn’t really happen—the eventual champ has checked at least seven boxes.

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So your 2017 national champion will come from this group of schools: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Oregon or Baylor.

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And if it’s not, I give up.

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Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of KenPom.com. 

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C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.     

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Read more NCAA Tournament news on BleacherReport.com

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keyes-football”,”maryland-terrapins-football”,”michigan-wolverines-football”,”michigan-state-football”,”minnesota-golden-gophers-football”,”nebraska-cornhuskers-football”,”northwestern-football”,”ohio-state-football”,”penn-state-football”,”purdue-football”,”rutgers-football”,”wisconsin-badgers-football”],”pac-12-football”:[“arizona-wildcats-football”,”arizona-state-football”,”cal-bears-football”,”colorado-buffaloes-football”,”oregon-ducks-football”,”oregon-state-football”,”stanford-football”,”ucla-football”,”usc-football”,”utah-utes-football”,”washington-huskies-football”,”washington-state-football”],”sec-football”:[“alabama-crimson-tide-football”,”arkansas-razorbacks-football”,”auburn-football”,”florida-gators-football”,”georgia-bulldogs-football”,”kentucky-wildcats-football”,”lsu-football”,”ole-miss-football”,”mississippi-state-football”,”missouri-tigers-football”,”south-carolina-football”,”tennessee-volunteers-football”,”texas-am-football”,”vanderbilt-football”],”independents-football”:[“army-football”,”byu-football”,”notre-dame-football”],”golf”:[“golf”,”golf/teams”,”golf/archives”],”tennis”:[“tennis”,”tennis/teams”,”tennis/archives”],”boxing”:[“boxing”,”boxing/archives”,”sports-odds”],”more”:[“combat-sports”,”motorsports”,”outdoor-sports”,”more-sports”],”combat-sports”:[“boxing”,”mma”,”wwe”],”motorsports”:[“auto-racing”,”formula-1″,”nascar”,”indycar-series”],”outdoor-sports”:[“Action-sports”,”cycling”,”fishing”,”horse-racing”,”track-and-field”],”more-sports”:[“esports”,”cricket”,”rugby”,”rugby-league”,”wnba”,”womens-college-basketball”,”united-states-womens-national-team”,”united-states”,”cfl”,”college-baseball”,”lacrosse”,”sports-odds”],”topLevelLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”leagueLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”nonLeagueLinks”:[“trending”,”http://mag.bleacherreport.com/”,”https://www.stubhub.com/?gcid=chDIG-_-geoUS-_-genAllTix-_-dt170201-_-cmpBR_Main_Nav-_-partBleacherReport-_-mktgrBRAND”,”mobile”],”dropdownStack”:[],”leagueOverflow”:[],”links”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”:”url”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”title”:”Bracket 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–>


MLB Season Preview
Joel ReuterFeatured ColumnistMarch 17, 2017

MLB Power Rankings: Where All 30 Teams Stand, 2017 Mid-Spring Training Edition

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    Tim Warner/Getty Images

    Months have turned to weeks, baseball fans.

    There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, as we’re now just a few short weeks removed from Opening Day.

    Here, at what is more or less the midway point of spring training, it’s time for a fresh version of our MLB power rankings, which were last updated March 1.

    Since it’s tough to draw significant conclusions from a handful of spring training games and there have been very few noteworthy injuries or trades so far this preseason, the rankings are relatively unchanged.

    Instead, we’ll focus on what is shaping up to be each team’s biggest strength and biggest weakness for the upcoming season in an effort to better illustrate why each team is ranked in their current spot.

    Late-spring injuries and the inevitable roster crunch could pave the way for a few spring trades, so there’s still time for things to change between now and Opening Day.

    As with any offseason power rankings, these are not meant to be predictions for the year ahead, but instead a look at how teams would stack up with the rosters they currently have if the season were to start today. 

     

    Note: Players listed in bold on projected rosters indicate newcomers. An (R) next to a player indicates his rookie status is intact.

30. San Diego Padres

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    Jhoulys Chacin /

    Jhoulys Chacin /Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    If Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Austin Hedges can make a smooth transition to the majors after standout seasons in Triple-A, it would go a long way in providing support for Wil Myers and Yangervis Solarte offensively for a team that ranked 28th in the majors with a .689 OPS last season.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The patchwork starting rotation could wind up putting a lot of pressure on an otherwise solid relief corps, leaving the entire pitching staff as the team’s biggest weakness. That’s the risk you run when you go bargain hunting for rotation pieces.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Travis Jankowski RHP Jered Weaver
    CF Manuel Margot (R) RHP Jhoulys Chacin
    1B Wil Myers LHP Clayton Richard
    3B Yangervis Solarte RHP Trevor Cahill
    RF Hunter Renfroe (R) LHP Christian Friedrich
    2B Ryan Schimpf Bullpen
    C Austin Hedges RHP Paul Clemens
    SS Luis Sardinas RHP Jarred Cosart
    Bench RHP Miguel Diaz (R)
    C Luis Torrens (R) RHP Kevin Quackenbush
    C/OF Christian Bethancourt LHP Ryan Buchter
    IF Erick Aybar LHP Brad Hand
    IF Cory Spangenberg RHP Brandon Maurer
    OF Jabari Blash  

     

    Projected DL: RP Carter Capps (Tommy John surgery), SP Colin Rea (TJ surgery), SP Robbie Erlin (TJ surgery), 1B/OF Alex Dickerson (back)

29. Cincinnati Reds

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    Amir Garrett /

    Amir Garrett /Tim Warner/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The one-two punch of Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza atop the lineup could wreak havoc on the base paths and provide Joey Votto with plenty of RBI opportunities. Votto hit a ridiculous .408/.490/.668 in the second half last season and could be primed for a career year.

     

    Potential Weakness

    With Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani already slated for the Opening Day disabled list, the starting rotation will be banking on a trio of inexperienced arms behind Brandon Finnegan and Scott Feldman. While it will provide those up-and-coming starters with some valuable experience, there will inevitably be some bumps along the way.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Billy Hamilton LHP Brandon Finnegan
    2B Jose Peraza RHP Scott Feldman
    1B Joey Votto RHP Robert Stephenson (R)
    LF Adam Duvall LHP Cody Reed
    RF Scott Schebler LHP Amir Garrett (R)
    SS Zack Cozart Bullpen
    3B Eugenio Suarez RHP Lisalverto Bonilla
    C Devin Mesoraco LHP Wandy Peralta
    Bench RHP Blake Wood
    C Tucker Barnhart RHP Drew Storen
    1B/OF Patrick Kivlehan (R) LHP Tony Cingrani
    IF/OF Arismendy Alcantara RHP Michael Lorenzen
    IF/OF Tony Renda RHP Raisel Iglesias
    OF Ryan Raburn  

     

    Projected DL: SP Homer Bailey (elbow surgery, bone spurs), SP Anthony DeSclafani (elbow sprain)

28. Minnesota Twins

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    Byron Buxton /

    Byron Buxton /Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have failed to live up to expectations so far, but with Buxton coming off a dynamite month of September and Sano settling back in at his natural third-base position they could both be primed for a breakout season. That would be a huge boon for the offense.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Brandon Kintzler did an admirable job stepping into the closer’s role out of necessity last season, but he’s far better served in a setup role. While Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle are nice low-cost additions to the relief corps, this year’s pen doesn’t look all that much different than the group that ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.63 ERA last season.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Brian Dozier RHP Ervin Santana
    SS Jorge Polanco RHP Kyle Gibson
    1B Joe Mauer LHP Hector Santiago
    3B Miguel Sano RHP Phil Hughes
    RF Max Kepler RHP Jose Berrios
    DH Kennys Vargas Bullpen
    C Jason Castro RHP Justin Haley (R)
    LF Eddie Rosario LHP Craig Breslow
    CF Byron Buxton RHP Michael Tonkin
    Bench LHP Taylor Rogers
    C John Ryan Murphy RHP Matt Belisle
    IF Ehire Adrianza RHP Ryan Pressly
    IF Eduardo Escobar RHP Brandon Kintzler
    OF Robbie Grossman  

     

    Projected DL: RP Glen Perkins (shoulder), SP Trevor May (torn UCL)

27. Chicago White Sox

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    Tim Anderson /

    Tim Anderson /Jamie Squire/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The Chicago White Sox finally have a clearly defined direction as rebuilding efforts have begun. The veterans know their time with the club is likely limited and the young players know they’ll get their chance in short order. They may not win a ton of games this year, but there’s legitimate excitement surrounding this team for the first time in years and that can be contagious in the clubhouse.

     

    Potential Weakness

    A clear direction and fan excitement is nice, but this is a team in the early stages of a rebuild. They’re going to ship off a fair amount more talent in the months to come and their success this year won’t be measured in wins and losses. That will likely result in plenty of the latter, and fans will need to be patient in trusting the process.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    SS Tim Anderson LHP Jose Quintana
    LF Melky Cabrera RHP Miguel Gonzalez
    1B Jose Abreu LHP Carlos Rodon
    3B Todd Frazier RHP James Shields
    RF Avisail Garcia LHP Derek Holland
    DH Cody Asche Bullpen
    C Geovany Soto RHP Dylan Covey (R)
    2B Tyler Saladino RHP Michael Ynoa
    CF Peter Bourjos LHP Cory Luebke
    Bench RHP Jake Petricka
    C Omar Narvaez (R) LHP Dan Jennings
    1B/3B Matt Davidson RHP Nate Jones
    IF Yolmer Sanchez RHP David Robertson
    IF/OF Leury Garcia  

     

    Projected DL: CF Charlie Tilson (foot)

26. Oakland Athletics

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    Jharel Cotton /

    Jharel Cotton /Christian Petersen/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The additions of Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce and Trevor Plouffe and a strong spring from Yonder Alonso (8-for-19, 2 HR) leaves the Oakland Athletics without any glaring holes in the lineup. There is also a number of prospects poised to break through this seasonincluding Matt Chapman, Renato Nunez, Chad Pinder and Joey Wendlewhich could provide further support to a quietly improved lineup.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The comeback push for ace Sonny Gray is not off to a strong start as he’ll start the season on the disabled list with a lat strain. That leaves the young duo of Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea to front a starting rotation with plenty of young depth, but limited MLB experience. The offense might be improved, but it won’t be good enough to single-handedly carry the team.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Rajai Davis RHP Kendall Graveman
    C Stephen Vogt LHP Sean Manaea
    DH Ryon Healy RHP Jesse Hahn
    LF Khris Davis RHP Jharel Cotton (R)
    RF Matt Joyce RHP Andrew Triggs
    SS Marcus Semien Bullpen
    3B Trevor Plouffe RHP Simon Castro (R)
    1B Yonder Alonso RHP Liam Hendriks
    2B Jed Lowrie RHP John Axford
    Bench RHP Ryan Dull
    C Josh Phegley RHP Santiago Casilla
    1B/OF Mark Canha LHP Sean Doolittle
    IF Adam Rosales RHP Ryan Madson
    OF Jaff Decker  

     

    Projected DL: SP Sonny Gray (lat strain), SP Chris Bassitt (TJ surgery), SP Daniel Mengden (foot surgery), OF Jake Smolinski (shoulder surgery)

25. Milwaukee Brewers

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    Keon Broxton /

    Keon Broxton /Dylan Buell/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    There’s a lot of “ifs” with the offense, but there’s also a ton of potential. If Keon Broxton plays like he did down the stretch last season, Jonathan Villar comes anywhere close to duplicating his breakout season and both Eric Thames and Travis Shaw can provide solid run production support for Ryan Braun this lineup could score a lot more runs than expected.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The Brewers have no fewer than seven pitchers vying for a spot in the starting rotation. The trouble is, none of them even remotely resemble a staff ace. Junior Guerra and Zach Davies appear to be the two guys locked into starting jobs, and while they both had their moments last season, neither is anywhere close to a sure thing to anchor the rotation.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Jonathan Villar RHP Junior Guerra
    CF Keon Broxton RHP Zach Davies
    LF Ryan Braun RHP Matt Garza
    1B Eric Thames RHP Jimmy Nelson
    3B Travis Shaw RHP Wily Peralta
    RF Domingo Santana Bullpen
    SS Orlando Arcia RHP Chase Anderson
    C Andrew Susac LHP Tommy Milone
    Bench RHP Jacob Barnes
    C Manny Pina (R) RHP Jhan Marinez
    1B Jesus Aguilar RHP Carlos Torres
    IF Scooter Gennett RHP Corey Knebel
    IF/OF Hernan Perez RHP Neftali Feliz
    OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis  

24. Philadelphia Phillies

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    Maikel Franco /

    Maikel Franco /Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The return of Jeremy Hellickson and the addition of Clay Buchholz gives the Philadelphia Phillies a starting rotation with an interesting mix of veteran upside and intriguing youth. A repeat performance from Hellickson and a similar resurrection from Buchholz would give the team a pair of valuable trade chips and their presence on the staff will only help in the young guys’ development.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The additions of Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick are nice, but how much of an overall difference are they going to make for a team that finished last in the majors in runs scored? Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp and Freddy Galvis all exceeded expectations last season and Maikel Franco is still looking to take that next step, so they could be scraping to score once again.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Cesar Hernandez RHP Jeremy Hellickson
    LF Howie Kendrick RHP Jerad Eickhoff
    CF Odubel Herrera RHP Aaron Nola
    3B Maikel Franco RHP Vincent Velasquez
    RF Michael Saunders RHP Clay Buchholz
    1B Tommy Joseph Bullpen
    C Cameron Rupp RHP Luis Garcia
    SS Freddy Galvis RHP Edubray Ramos
    Bench LHP Joely Rodriguez (R)
    C Ryan Hanigan RHP Pat Neshek
    1B/OF Daniel Nava RHP Hector Neris
    IF Andres Blanco RHP Joaquin Benoit
    IF/OF Chris Coghlan RHP Jeanmar Gomez
    OF Aaron Altherr  

23. Atlanta Braves

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    Dansby Swanson /

    Dansby Swanson /G Fiume/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Full seasons of Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp and Dansby Swanson, along with the addition of Brandon Phillips, gives the Atlanta Braves a lineup that could make some legitimate noise in the NL East. Their starting rotation won’t be confused with a stable of aces, but it should eat plenty of innings, and that’s exactly what the team needs at this point. After a 12-2 finish to the 2016 season, a push toward .500 is not out of the question.

     

    Potential Weakness

    While Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey should eat a ton of innings, whether they’re quality innings remains to be seen. Having three guys combined for 540 innings and a 4.75 ERA isn’t necessarily a good thing as far as the team’s outlook is concerned. It’s a more experienced rotation, but it’s not a given it will be a vastly improved one.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Ender Inciarte RHP Julio Teheran
    SS Dansby Swanson (R) RHP Bartolo Colon
    1B Freddie Freeman LHP Jaime Garcia
    LF Matt Kemp RHP R.A. Dickey
    RF Nick Markakis RHP Mike Foltynewicz
    2B Brandon Phillips Bullpen
    3B Adonis Garcia RHP Josh Collmenter
    C Tyler Flowers LHP Kevin Chapman
    Bench RHP Chaz Roe
    C Kurt Suzuki RHP Jose Ramirez
    IF Jace Peterson LHP Ian Krol
    IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio RHP Mauricio Cabrera
    IF/OF Chase d’Arnaud RHP Arodys Vizcaino
       RHP Jim Johnson

     

    Projected DL: IF Sean Rodriguez (shoulder surgery), RP Paco Rodriguez (TJ surgery), RP Jacob Lindgren (TJ surgery), RP Dan Winkler (fractured elbow), RP Armando Rivero (shoulder soreness)

22. Los Angeles Angels

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    Garrett Richards /

    Garrett Richards /Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The Los Angeles Angels may not have made any splashy additions, but the supporting cast around Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun is vastly improved. Danny Espinosa, Luis Valbuena, Ben Revere and Cameron Maybin will all be welcome additions and could be enough to push the offensive attack from below average to above average.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The starting rotation has a chance to be solid if Garrett Richards’ arm holds up and Tyler Skaggs can stay healthy. It also has a chance to be an absolute disaster if one or both of those guys misses time, as there’s little in the way of viable depth while Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano continue to recover from Tommy John surgery. The back end of the bullpen is also far from a sure thing.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Ben Revere RHP Garrett Richards
    RF Kole Calhoun RHP Matt Shoemaker
    CF Mike Trout LHP Tyler Skaggs
    DH Albert Pujols RHP Ricky Nolasco
    1B Luis Valbuena RHP Jesse Chavez
    3B Yunel Escobar Bullpen
    2B Danny Espinosa RHP Yusmeiro Petit
    SS Andrelton Simmons LHP Cody Ege (R)
    C Martin Maldonado RHP Austin Adams
    Bench LHP Jose Alvarez
    C Carlos Perez RHP J.C. Ramirez
    1B C.J. Cron RHP Andrew Bailey
    IF Cliff Pennington RHP Cam Bedrosian
    OF Cameron Maybin  

     

    Projected DL: RP Huston Street (lat strain), SP Andrew Heaney (TJ surgery), SP Nick Tropeano (TJ surgery)

21. Tampa Bay Rays

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    Blake Snell /

    Blake Snell /Bob Levey/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    It might sound crazy after the team traded Matt Moore in July and Drew Smyly this offseason, but this year’s starting rotation could once again emerge as one of the best in baseball. A potential bounce-back season from Chris Archer, a healthy campaign from Alex Cobb, another step forward from Blake Snell and the impending arrivals of Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell leave plenty of room for optimism.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The offense will once again need to be propped up by the pitching staff. Wilson Ramos and Colby Rasmus were nice low-cost additions and prospect Casey Gillaspie could be along to help at some point, but this is still a lineup that could struggle to score runs at times, especially if Brad Miller levels off after a surprising power surge.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Kevin Kiermaier RHP Chris Archer
    SS Matt Duffy RHP Jake Odorizzi
    3B Evan Longoria RHP Alex Cobb
    2B Brad Miller LHP Blake Snell
    DH Corey Dickerson RHP Matt Andriese
    LF Colby Rasmus Bullpen
    RF Steven Souza RHP Erasmo Ramirez
    1B Logan Morrison LHP Justin Marks (R)
    C Curt Casali RHP Jumbo Diaz
    Bench RHP Danny Farquhar
    C Luke Maile LHP Xavier Cedeno
    1B/OF Rickie Weeks Jr. RHP Brad Boxberger
    IF Tim Beckham RHP Alex Colome
    IF/OF Nick Franklin  

     

    Projected DL: C Wilson Ramos (knee surgery), SP Nathan Eovaldi (TJ surgery), RP Shawn Tolleson (lat soreness)

20. Arizona Diamondbacks

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    A.J. Pollock /

    A.J. Pollock /Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Healthy seasons from A.J. Pollock and David Peralta will be huge for an offense that was already 10th in the majors in runs scored without them last year. Assuming Zack Greinke has no lingering issues with his velocity, the trio of Greinke, Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker could surprise a lot of people fronting a rotation with plenty of depth.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Does anyone really trust Fernando Rodney to close out games for an entire season? After a brilliant start to last year, he imploded down the stretch and he’ll turn 40 tomorrow. Yet, the D-Backs signed him to close and really didn’t line up a fallback plan if he falters. 

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF A.J. Pollock RHP Zack Greinke
    SS Chris Owings LHP Robbie Ray
    1B Paul Goldschmidt RHP Taijuan Walker
    RF David Peralta RHP Shelby Miller
    LF Yasmany Tomas LHP Patrick Corbin
    3B Jake Lamb Bullpen
    2B Brandon Drury RHP Tyler Jones (R)
    C Chris Iannetta RHP J.J. Hoover
    Bench RHP Tom Wilhelmsen
    C Jeff Mathis LHP Andrew Chafin
    C/OF Chris Herrmann RHP Randall Delgado
    IF Nick Ahmed RHP Jake Barrett
    IF/OF Daniel Descalso RHP Fernando Rodney
    OF Jeremy Hazelbaker  

19. Baltimore Orioles

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    Kevin Gausman /

    Kevin Gausman /Leon Halip/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The offense is going to hit a ton of home runs again and the bullpen will continue to shorten games behind the late-inning arms of Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day, Brad Brach and Zach Britton. Basically, the same things the Baltimore Orioles hung their hat on a year ago.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Making no significant additions to a starting rotation that ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.72 ERA was a risky move to say the least. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are both still capable of taking another step forward, but even that might not be enough for them to have even a league-average staff. The complete lack of speed on the bases (19 SB in 2016) also went unaddressed.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Hyun Soo Kim RHP Kevin Gausman
    CF Adam Jones RHP Dylan Bundy
    3B Manny Machado RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
    1B Chris Davis LHP Wade Miley
    DH Mark Trumbo RHP Mike Wright
    2B Jonathan Schoop Bullpen
    RF Seth Smith LHP Vidal Nuno
    C Welington Castillo RHP Oliver Drake
    SS J.J. Hardy LHP Donnie Hart
    Bench RHP Mychal Givens
    C Caleb Joseph RHP Darren O’Day
    IF/OF Ryan Flaherty RHP Brad Brach
    OF Craig Gentry LHP Zach Britton
    OF Joey Rickard  

     

    Projected DL: Chris Tillman (PRP injection in shoulder), OF Anthony Santander (elbow)

18. Kansas City Royals

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    Kelvin Herrera /

    Kelvin Herrera /Jason Miller/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    With Danny Duffy opening the season as the clear ace and the additions of Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, the starting rotation could be improved over last year’s group. A healthy Mike Moustakas and a bounce-back season from Lorenzo Cain would also go a long way toward improving the offense, while Brandon Moss and Jorge Soler add some intriguing pop.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The bullpen has been a focal point for the Royals during their recent run of success, but after trading Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs it no longer looks like a clear strength. Kelvin Herrera is more than capable of closing and Joakim Soria has a long track record of success, but this isn’t the lights out pen it’s been in years past.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    SS Alcides Escobar LHP Danny Duffy
    3B Mike Moustakas RHP Ian Kennedy
    CF Lorenzo Cain LHP Jason Vargas
    1B Eric Hosmer RHP Jason Hammel
    C Salvador Perez LHP Travis Wood
    LF Alex Gordon Bullpen
    RF Jorge Soler LHP Mike Minor
    DH Brandon Moss RHP Chris Young
    2B Raul Mondesi LHP Scott Alexander
    Bench RHP Peter Moylan
    C Drew Butera LHP Matt Strahm (R)
    IF Christian Colon RHP Joakim Soria
    IF Cheslor Cuthbert RHP Kelvin Herrera
    OF Paulo Orlando  

     

    Projected DL: RP Brian Flynn (fractured rib)

17. Miami Marlins

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    Chris Trotman/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The bullpen! Adding Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler to a relief corps that already included a valuable swingman (David Phelps), strikeout machine (Kyle Barraclough) and standout closer (A.J. Ramos) gives the Miami Marlins a pen that rivals any in baseball.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Credit the front office for thinking outside the box when they opted to make building up the relief corps the top priority as opposed to overpaying for mid-level starting pitching. The additions of Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily and Jeff Locke give the team some warm bodies to round out the staff, but don’t be surprised if the Miami bullpen leads all relief corps in innings pitched.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Dee Gordon LHP Wei-Yin Chen
    3B Martin Prado RHP Edinson Volquez
    CF Christian Yelich LHP Adam Conley
    RF Giancarlo Stanton RHP Dan Straily
    LF Marcell Ozuna RHP Tom Koehler
    1B Justin Bour Bullpen
    C J.T. Realmuto RHP Jose Urena
    SS Adeiny Hechavarria RHP David Phelps
    Bench LHP Hunter Cervenka
    C A.J. Ellis RHP Dustin McGowan
    IF Miguel Rojas RHP Junichi Tazawa
    IF/OF Derek Dietrich RHP Brad Ziegler
    OF Ichiro Suzuki RHP Kyle Barraclough
       RHP A.J. Ramos

     

    Projected DL: SP Jeff Locke (biceps tendinitis)

16. Colorado Rockies

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    Trevor Story /

    Trevor Story /Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    It has to be the offense, right? Even with Ian Desmond, David Dahl and Tom Murphy projected to start the season on the disabled list, this still looks like a dangerous group that should have no trouble scoring runs. The trio of Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Tyler Chatwood atop the staff also has a chance to be better than expected and the young duo of Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez certainly offers intriguing upside.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The Rockies’ bullpen was worst in the majors with a 5.13 ERA last season, undermining a vastly improved starting rotation and accounting for 29 losses and 28 blown saves. Greg Holland and Mike Dunn are nice additions and a healthy season from Adam Ottavino will also help, but is this year’s group good enough for the team to contend?

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Charlie Blackmon RHP Jon Gray
    2B DJ LeMahieu LHP Tyler Anderson
    3B Nolan Arenado RHP Tyler Chatwood
    RF Carlos Gonzalez RHP Jeff Hoffman (R)
    SS Trevor Story RHP German Marquez (R)
    LF Gerardo Parra Bullpen
    1B Mark Reynolds RHP Jordan Lyles
    C Tony Wolters LHP Chris Rusin
    Bench RHP Scott Oberg
    C Dustin Garneau LHP Mike Dunn
    IF Cristhian Adames RHP Jason Motte
    IF/OF Alexi Amarista LHP Jake McGee
    OF Stephen Cardullo (R) RHP Greg Holland
       RHP Adam Ottavino

     

    Projected DL: SP Chad Bettis (chemotherapy), 1B Ian Desmond (hand fracture), LF David Dahl (stress reaction-rib), C Tom Murphy (forearm fracture), RP Chad Qualls (elbow soreness), RP Jairo Diaz (TJ surgery)

15. Pittsburgh Pirates

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    Jameson Taillon /

    Jameson Taillon /Leon Halip/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The Pittsburgh Pirates finished sixth in the NL in runs scored last year while Andrew McCutchen suffered through the worst season of his career. If he can return to All-Star form and Josh Bell makes a smooth transition into the everyday first base role, this year’s lineup could be even more dangerous.

     

    Potential Weakness

    There’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation. Gerrit Cole needs to pitch like an ace, Ivan Nova needs to prove his two-month stint with the team was the real deal and behind that duo, the team is relying on some combination of Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Drew Hutchison, Tyler Glasnow and Steven Brault. There’s upside, but there’s also an enormous spread between ceiling and floor for that group.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Josh Harrison RHP Gerrit Cole
    1B Josh Bell (R) RHP Ivan Nova
    RF Andrew McCutchen RHP Jameson Taillon
    CF Starling Marte RHP Chad Kuhl
    LF Gregory Polanco RHP Drew Hutchison
    3B David Freese Bullpen
    C Francisco Cervelli LHP Wade LeBlanc
    SS Jordy Mercer RHP Juan Nicasio
    Bench LHP Antonio Bastardo
    C Chris Stewart RHP Jared Hughes
    1B John Jaso LHP Felipe Rivero
    IF Alen Hanson (R) RHP Daniel Hudson
    IF/OF Adam Frazier LHP Tony Watson
    IF/OF Phil Gosselin  

     

    Restricted List: 3B Jung Ho Kang

14. Detroit Tigers

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    Daniel Norris /

    Daniel Norris /Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Even without an established center fielder and with defensive-minded players at the catcher and shortstop positions, the Detroit Tigers are going to score a ton of runs. That’s especially true if Justin Upton can avoid another disastrously slow start and Nick Castellanos can stay healthy long enough to truly break out.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Pitching. One or both of Jordan Zimmermann and Anibal Sanchez living up to their hefty salary would go a long way in the starting rotation, but at some point, the team might need to realize that Matt Boyd is a better option. The relief corps also made no significant additions after ranking 24th in the majors with a 4.22 ERA and tallying 19 blown saves a year ago.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Ian Kinsler RHP Justin Verlander
    RF J.D. Martinez RHP Michael Fulmer
    1B Miguel Cabrera RHP Jordan Zimmermann
    DH Victor Martinez RHP Anibal Sanchez
    LF Justin Upton LHP Daniel Norris
    3B Nick Castellanos Bullpen
    C James McCann RHP Mike Pelfrey
    CF Tyler Collins LHP Daniel Stumpf (R)
    SS Jose Iglesias RHP Mark Lowe
    Bench RHP Bruce Rondon
    C Alex Avila LHP Justin Wilson
    IF/OF Andrew Romine RHP Alex Wilson
    OF Mikie Mahtook RHP Francisco Rodriguez
    OF Steven Moya  

13. New York Yankees

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    Greg Bird /

    Greg Bird /Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Bringing back Aroldis Chapman and quietly trading for Tyler Clippard at the deadline gives the New York Yankees a new “Big Three” at the back of the bullpen and they should again have a reliable stable of relief arms. A full season of Gary Sanchez, healthy Greg Bird and the addition of Matt Holliday should also make for an improved offense.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Masahiro Tanaka is really the only sure thing in the starting rotation. CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda are locked into spots behind him, but consistent and reliable are not words that will be used to describe that duo anytime soon. Then there’s the four-man battle for the final two spots between Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell, Chad Green and Luis Cessaa group short on MLB experience to say the least.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Brett Gardner RHP Masahiro Tanaka
    CF Jacoby Ellsbury LHP CC Sabathia
    C Gary Sanchez RHP Michael Pineda
    DH Matt Holliday RHP Luis Severino
    1B Greg Bird RHP Chad Green
    2B Starlin Castro Bullpen
    SS Didi Gregorius LHP Jon Niese
    3B Chase Headley RHP Bryan Mitchell
    RF Aaron Judge (R) RHP Adam Warren
    Bench LHP Tommy Layne
    C Austin Romine RHP Tyler Clippard
    1B Chris Carter RHP Dellin Betances
    IF Ronald Torreyes LHP Aroldis Chapman
    OF Aaron Hicks  

     

    Projected DL: 1B/OF Tyler Austin (fractured foot)

12. New York Mets

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    Jay Bruce /

    Jay Bruce /Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Remember last offseason when the New York Mets rotation was being billed as a juggernaut and the team’s ticket for a return trip to the World Series? Aside from Bartolo Colon, all of those guys are still around and with better health, there’s no reason they can’t at least approach those lofty expectations.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes was huge, but the Mets made zero outside additions to an offense that finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. A full season of Jay Bruce, bounce-back performance from Michael Conforto and a healthy Lucas Duda could help, but that’s putting an awful lot of eggs in the pitching basket when the window to contend is open right now.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    3B Jose Reyes RHP Noah Syndergaard
    CF Curtis Granderson RHP Jacob deGrom
    LF Yoenis Cespedes RHP Matt Harvey
    RF Jay Bruce LHP Steven Matz
    2B Neil Walker RHP Robert Gsellman
    SS Asdrubal Cabrera Bullpen
    1B Lucas Duda RHP Rafael Montero
    C Travis d’Arnaud LHP Josh Edgin
    Bench RHP Fernando Salas
    C Rene Rivera LHP Jerry Blevins
    IF Wilmer Flores RHP Hansel Robles
    IF/OF T.J. Rivera (R) RHP Addison Reed
    OF Michael Conforto RHP Jeurys Familia
    OF Juan Lagares  

     

    Projected DL: 3B David Wright (shoulder impingement), SP Zack Wheeler (TJ recovery)

11. Seattle Mariners

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    Drew Smyly /

    Drew Smyly /Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Even with a pair of unproven rookies (Mitch Haniger and Dan Vogelbach), a question mark at catcher (Mike Zunino) and a defensive-minded center fielder (Leonys Martin), the Seattle Mariners have one of the best offenses in baseball. Speedy newcomers Jarrod Dyson and Jean Segura setting the table ahead of a trio of 30-homer sluggers will be fun to watch.

     

    Potential Weakness

    It’s hard to decide what to make of the Mariners’ starting rotation. On the one hand, if Felix Hernandez returns to ace form, James Paxton delivers on his breakout potential and newcomers Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly put mediocre 2016 seasons behind them this could be a great staff. On the other hand, none of that is guaranteed and the rotation could wind up being what holds this team back.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Jarrod Dyson RHP Felix Hernandez
    SS Jean Segura RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
    2B Robinson Cano LHP James Paxton
    DH Nelson Cruz RHP Yovani Gallardo
    3B Kyle Seager LHP Drew Smyly
    RF Mitch Haniger (R) Bullpen
    1B Dan Vogelbach (R) RHP Chris Heston
    C Mike Zunino RHP Dan Altavilla (R)
    CF Leonys Martin RHP Evan Scribner
    Bench RHP Casey Fien
    C Carlos Ruiz LHP Marc Rzepczynski
    IF/OF Shawn O’Malley RHP Nick Vincent
    IF/OF Danny Valencia RHP Edwin Diaz
    OF Guillermo Heredia (R)  

     

    Projected DL: RP Steve Cishek (hip surgery)

10. Texas Rangers

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    Martin Perez /

    Martin Perez /Rick Yeatts/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Bold declaration: This year’s Texas Rangers will score even more runs than the team that finished seventh in the majors in that category last year. The Carlos Gomez renaissance is for real, Jurickson Profar is finally ready to deliver on his potential after a big World Baseball Classic, Mike Napoli is back (again) and Jonathan Lucroy will be around for a full season. Look out, American League.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Not so bold declaration: They’re going to need every single one of those runs on days when Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are not pitching. Martin Perez is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but Andrew Cashner is already sidelined, leaving some combination of A.J. Griffin, Dillon Gee, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Martinez to round out the staff until Tyson Ross is cleared for action.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Carlos Gomez LHP Cole Hamels
    DH Shin-Soo Choo RHP Yu Darvish
    3B Adrian Beltre LHP Martin Perez
    1B Mike Napoli RHP A.J. Griffin
    2B Rougned Odor RHP Dillon Gee
    C Jonathan Lucroy Bullpen
    RF Nomar Mazara RHP Mike Hauschild (R)
    SS Elvis Andrus LHP Alex Claudio
    LF Jurickson Profar RHP Keone Kela
    Bench RHP Tony Barnette
    C Robinson Chirinos RHP Matt Bush
    IF Hanser Alberto RHP Jeremy Jeffress
    IF/OF Ryan Rua RHP Sam Dyson
    OF Delino DeShields Jr.  

     

    Projected DL: SP Tyson Ross (thoracic outlet surgery), SP Andrew Cashner (biceps tendinitis), RP Jake Diekman (ulcerative colitis surgery)

9. St. Louis Cardinals

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    Lance Lynn /

    Lance Lynn /Rich Schultz/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The St. Louis Cardinals improved their overall defense this offseason by signing a natural center fielder in Dexter Fowler and committing to Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman, and that should have a positive effect on the pitching staff. As always, they have as much depth as any team in baseball on both sides of the ball.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The starting rotation could be a top-10 group when all is said and done, but it could also prove to be the team’s undoing. Lance Lynn will be shaking off the rust of a season missed to Tommy John surgery, Michael Wacha has had a hard time staying healthy, Adam Wainwright is another year older and X-factor Alex Reyes was lost for the season to his own Tommy John surgery. Luke Weaver provides some nice depth, but this staff is far from a sure thing.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Dexter Fowler RHP Carlos Martinez
    SS Aledmys Diaz RHP Adam Wainwright
    1B Matt Carpenter RHP Lance Lynn
    RF Stephen Piscotty RHP Mike Leake
    C Yadier Molina RHP Michael Wacha
    3B Jedd Gyorko Bullpen
    LF Randal Grichuk RHP Matt Bowman
    2B Kolten Wong RHP Miguel Socolovich
    Bench RHP Jonathan Broxton
    C Eric Fryer LHP Brett Cecil
    1B Matt Adams RHP Trevor Rosenthal
    IF Greg Garcia LHP Kevin Siegrist
    IF Jhonny Peralta RHP Seung Hwan Oh
    OF Jose Martinez (R)  

     

    Projected DL: SP Alex Reyes (TJ surgery), SP Marco Gonzales (TJ surgery), RP Zach Duke (TJ surgery), RP Tyler Lyons (knee surgery)

8. San Francisco Giants

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    Brandon Belt /

    Brandon Belt /Tim Warner/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    After leaning a bit more heavily on the offense in recent years, it looks like the pitching staff could once again be the driving force for the San Francisco Giants. Full seasons of Matt Moore and Will Smith along with the addition of a proven closer in Mark Melancon has the staff looking formidable, the only question mark is Matt Cain in the No. 5 starter role.

     

    Potential Weakness

    With some expected regression from Eduardo Nunez and a potential revolving door in left field, the bottom of the lineup could turn into an issue as the season progresses. And while there are some fun names in camp as non-roster invitees, this really isn’t the deepest team on the position-player side of things. One key injury could prove costly.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Denard Span LHP Madison Bumgarner
    1B Brandon Belt RHP Johnny Cueto
    C Buster Posey RHP Jeff Samardzija
    RF Hunter Pence LHP Matt Moore
    SS Brandon Crawford RHP Matt Cain
    3B Eduardo Nunez Bullpen
    2B Joe Panik RHP Cory Gearrin
    LF Jarrett Parker RHP George Kontos
    Bench LHP Steven Okert (R)
    C Nick Hundley RHP Hunter Strickland
    1B/3B Conor Gillaspie LHP Will Smith
    IF Jae-gyun Hwang (R) RHP Derek Law
    OF Gorkys Hernandez RHP Mark Melancon
    OF Mac Williamson  

7. Toronto Blue Jays

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    Aaron Sanchez /

    Aaron Sanchez /Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The team’s starting rotation clearly surpassed the offense as its greatest strength last season and that should hold true once again in 2017. Aaron Sanchez has the stuff to emerge as one of the game’s truly elite starters and Marcus Stroman is capable of considerably more than he showed last season. So even if J.A. Happ takes a step back and Marco Estrada proves to be a bit more hittable, the rotation still looks strong.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Joe Smith and J.P. Howell were nice late-offseason signings to round out the bullpen, replacing departed veterans Joaquin Benoit and Brett Cecil. That’s the thing, though, they didn’t necessarily improve on last year’s unit but instead tried their best to replicate it. That’s maybe not the best strategy when we’re talking about a relief corps that ranked 22nd in the majors with a 4.11 ERA and blew 23 saves.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF Kevin Pillar RHP Aaron Sanchez
    3B Josh Donaldson LHP J.A. Happ
    RF Jose Bautista RHP Marco Estrada
    DH Kendrys Morales RHP Marcus Stroman
    SS Troy Tulowitzki LHP Francisco Liriano
    1B Justin Smoak Bullpen
    C Russell Martin RHP Mike Bolsinger
    LF Ezequiel Carrera LHP Aaron Loup
    2B Darwin Barney RHP Joe Smith
    Bench LHP J.P. Howell
    C Jarrod Saltalamacchia RHP Joe Biagini
    IF Ryan Goins RHP Jason Grilli
    IF/OF Steve Pearce RHP Roberto Osuna
    OF Melvin Upton Jr.  

     

    Projected DL: 2B Devon Travis (knee surgery)

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

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    Logan Forsythe /

    Logan Forsythe /Rob Tringali/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    A healthy Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy, as well as a full season of Rich Hill, puts the starting rotation in significantly better position. The experience gained by guys like Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart last season also provides the team with viable depth if the injury bug does strike again, and playing it safe with Julio Urias by leaving him at extended spring training seems like a smart move as well.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Will the addition of right-handed hitting Logan Forsythe and lefty masher Franklin Gutierrez be enough to solve the team’s struggles against left-handed pitching? They hit just .214/.291/.333 against southpaws last season. There’s also the very real question of whether they did enough to build out the bullpen after spending big to bring back Kenley Jansen.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Logan Forsythe LHP Clayton Kershaw
    SS Corey Seager LHP Rich Hill
    3B Justin Turner RHP Kenta Maeda
    1B Adrian Gonzalez LHP Scott Kazmir
    C Yasmani Grandal RHP Brandon McCarthy
    CF Joc Pederson Bullpen
    RF Yasiel Puig LHP Alex Wood
    LF Andrew Toles RHP Chris Hatcher
    Bench LHP Luis Avilan
    C/IF Austin Barnes (R) RHP Sergio Romo
    IF Chase Utley LHP Grant Dayton
    IF/OF Kike Hernandez RHP Pedro Baez
    OF Andre Ethier RHP Kenley Jansen
    OF Franklin Gutierrez  

     

    Projected DL: SP Hyun-Jin Ryu (elbow surgery), RP Yimi Garcia (TJ surgery)

5. Houston Astros

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    Lance McCullers /

    Lance McCullers /Rich Schultz/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Adding a significant veteran presence to an exciting young lineup gives the Houston Astros one of the more balanced offensive attacks in baseball. Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer are both capable of taking things up another notch and don’t underestimate what Yulieski Gurriel could provide now that he’s had a chance to settle in.

     

    Potential Weakness

    It’s all going to boil down to starting pitching for the Astros. If Dallas Keuchel can land somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 numbers, Lance McCullers can stay healthy and someone like Joe Musgrove or Charlie Morton can step up, they should be fine. Otherwise, they’ll be counting on the midseason arrival of top prosepct Francis Martes or a blockbuster trade to solidify the staff.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    CF George Springer LHP Dallas Keuchel
    2B Jose Altuve RHP Lance McCullers
    SS Carlos Correa RHP Collin McHugh
    DH Carlos Beltran RHP Mike Fiers
    C Brian McCann RHP Charlie Morton
    3B Alex Bregman Bullpen
    RF Josh Reddick RHP Chris Devenski
    1B Yulieski Gurriel (R) RHP Brad Peacock
    LF Nori Aoki RHP Michael Feliz
    Bench LHP Tony Sipp
    C Evan Gattis RHP Luke Gregerson
    IF/OF Marwin Gonzalez RHP Will Harris
    OF Teoscar Hernandez (R) RHP Ken Giles
    OF Jake Marisnick  

4. Washington Nationals

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    Shawn Kelley /

    Shawn Kelley /Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    The Washington Nationals lineup has a chance to be downright scary. There might not be a better table-setting duo in the league than Trea Turner and Adam Eaton and if Bryce Harper can return to his MVP form their 1-5 stacks up to any in baseball. Oh, and that starting rotation should be pretty good too, especially if Stephen Strasburg can make 30 starts.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Can Shawn Kelley handle closer duties on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations? That’s been the big question all offseason and it will continue to be asked on into the regular season. There are some intriguing fallback options in groundball machine Blake Treinen and flame-throwing rookie Koda Glover, but the last thing a contender needs is uncertainty in the ninth.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    SS Trea Turner RHP Max Scherzer
    CF Adam Eaton RHP Stephen Strasburg
    2B Daniel Murphy RHP Tanner Roark
    RF Bryce Harper LHP Gio Gonzalez
    3B Anthony Rendon RHP Joe Ross
    LF Jayson Werth Bullpen
    C Matt Wieters LHP Enny Romero
    1B Ryan Zimmerman RHP Koda Glover (R)
    Bench LHP Oliver Perez
    C Jose Lobaton RHP Blake Treinen
    1B Adam Lind LHP Sammy Solis
    1B/OF Clint Robinson RHP Joe Blanton
    IF Stephen Drew RHP Shawn Kelley
    OF Chris Heisey  

3. Boston Red Sox

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    Eduardo Rodriguez /

    Eduardo Rodriguez /Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Pick one. The offense is still stacked even after the retirement of David Ortiz, the starting rotation could be a juggernaut if David Price gets healthy and Eduardo Rodriguez climbs closer to his potential and the bullpen added an elite setup man in Tyler Thornburgsomething they didn’t have a year ago.

     

    Potential Weakness

    Bullpen depth is probably the one area that can be pointed to as a potential area of concern for the Boston Red Sox. Thornburg and Craig Kimbrel in the late innings should be lights out and Joe Kelly has a chance to be a major weapon, but the rest of the relief corps is average at best and there’s not a ton of viable options waiting in the wings.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    2B Dustin Pedroia LHP Chris Sale
    LF Andrew Benintendi (R) RHP Rick Porcello
    SS Xander Bogaerts LHP Drew Pomeranz
    RF Mookie Betts RHP Steven Wright
    DH Hanley Ramirez LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
    CF Jackie Bradley Jr. Bullpen
    3B Pablo Sandoval RHP Heath Hembree
    1B Mitch Moreland LHP Fernando Abad
    C Sandy Leon RHP Matt Barnes
    Bench LHP Robbie Ross Jr.
    C Christian Vazquez RHP Joe Kelly
    IF Deven Marrero RHP Tyler Thornburg
    IF/OF Brock Holt RHP Craig Kimbrel
    OF Chris Young  

     

    Projected DL: SP David Price (elbow discomfort), RP Carson Smith (TJ surgery)

2. Cleveland Indians

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    Michael Brantley /

    Michael Brantley /Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    If everyone is healthy and pitching up to their potential, the Cleveland Indians have the best starting rotation in baseball. That being said, injuries down the stretch last season also created some valuable depth the team didn’t have in the past as Michael Clevinger and postseason hero Ryan Merritt gained experience. This also has a chance to be a top-five offense if all goes according to plan, but it’s the rotation that will drive the ship.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The injury to Jason Kipnis is kind of a bummer, does that qualify as a weakness? He’s expected to start the season on the disabled list with a strained rotator cuff and the team doesn’t have a clear in-house replacement. The ongoing health concerns of Michael Brantley and potential regression of Tyler Naquin could also create some question marks in the outfield, but that’s about it.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    3B Jose Ramirez RHP Corey Kluber
    SS Francisco Lindor RHP Carlos Carrasco
    LF Michael Brantley RHP Danny Salazar
    1B Edwin Encarnacion RHP Trevor Bauer
    1B Carlos Santana RHP Josh Tomlin
    RF Lonnie Chisenhall Bullpen
    C Yan Gomes RHP Shawn Armstrong (R)
    CF Tyler Naquin RHP Zach McAllister
    2B Erik Gonzalez (R) RHP Dan Otero
    Bench LHP Boone Logan
    C Roberto Perez RHP Bryan Shaw
    IF Michael Martinez LHP Andrew Miller
    OF Abraham Almonte RHP Cody Allen
    OF Brandon Guyer  

     

    Projected DL: 2B Jason Kipnis (strained rotator cuff)

1. Chicago Cubs

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    Brett Anderson /

    Brett Anderson /Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

    Potential Strength

    Close your eyes and point. The offense could be the best in baseball with a full season of Kyle Schwarber and more of Willson Contreras behind the plate, the starting rotation was the best in baseball a year ago and returns all the big guns and the bullpen starts the season with far more stability than it had at this time a year ago after adding Wade Davis and Koji Uehara in the offseason. This is no one-year wonder, folks.

     

    Potential Weakness

    The No. 5 starter spot is a bit sketchy as the oft-injured Brett Anderson will open the season rounding out the rotation. If he finds his way to the disabled list once again, that would likely force Mike Montgomery into the rotation, leaving the team without a lockdown lefty reliever. However, the fact that it takes a few dominoes falling to get us to what could potentially be a weakness for this Cubs team speaks volumes to just how complete a roster they have.

     

    Projected Opening Day Roster (as of March 16)

    Starting Lineup Starting Rotation
    LF Kyle Schwarber LHP Jon Lester
    3B Kris Bryant RHP Jake Arrieta
    1B Anthony Rizzo RHP Kyle Hendricks
    2B Ben Zobrist RHP John Lackey
    SS Addison Russell LHP Brett Anderson
    RF Jason Heyward Bullpen
    C Willson Contreras LHP Brian Duensing
    CF Jon Jay RHP Justin Grimm
    Bench LHP Mike Montgomery
    C Miguel Montero RHP Carl Edwards Jr.
    IF Javier Baez RHP Pedro Strop
    OF Albert Almora Jr. RHP Koji Uehara
    OF Matt Szczur RHP Hector Rondon
      RHP Wade Davis

     

    All regular season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, while spring stats come via MLB.com.