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After four months of basketball, you would think that a team typically is what it is.

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This exercise is done to identify the traits of a national champion by studying past champs. I identified 10 criteria that most champions fall under and put the top four seeds in each region through the gamut to see who has that championship look.

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But the last three national champs have taught us that it’s apparently never too late to change.

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In 2014, Connecticut looked nothing like a title contender. Any Huskies fans who want to raise their hands and say “I picked them” weren’t living in reality. 

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The Huskies were such an outlier I made the decision to not even study their numbers. It was a freak accident, and it was to be treated as such.

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But the last two years have also been unusual in that one criteria the eventual champ fell well short of meeting in the regular season became a huge strength in the postseason.

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In 2015, Duke went from playing meh defense for four months to unleashing one of the stingiest defenses in the history of the tournament. The Blue Devils entered the tourney ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency and finished 12th. That sort of jump over six games just does not happen.

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Last season, Villanova shot a bunch of threes but wasn’t very accurate, entering the tourney making 34.4 percent from deep—37 percent is the target in the blueprint. Somehow, the Wildcats all turned into Stephen Curry and plowed through the bracket nailing exactly 50 percent of their threes.

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This is a long way of saying that the results of this exercise should be considered in picking the champ, but we should also consider the possibility a team somehow changes in the middle of March.

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I’m also 0-for-4 using this data to pick the title winner.

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Last season, the numbers loved Michigan State, which was only the second team in four years to hit all 10 criteria. Sparty, of course, lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee.

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But to justify the sake of this exercise, the numbers did like Louisville in 2013, Duke in 2015 and Villanova last year, so the data is worth running. At least, that’s what I keep telling myself.

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Here are the 10 qualifications, which I’ve adjusted slightly through the years based on rule changes and trends: 

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  • Head coach has reached an Elite Eight.
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  • Team won either its regular-season conference title or conference tournament. (This rule could get replaced next season. Before UConn in 2014, every champ since 1990 except Arizona in 1997 had won a league title. Then last year’s champ failed to do so as well, making this qualifier moot for two straight years. But since UConn in ’14 never happened, the blueprint is currently chalking Duke up as an outlier.)
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Shoots better than 37 percent from beyond the arc.
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  • Has at least three double-digit scorers. (Allow rounding, so 9.5-plus qualifies.)
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  • Has a frontcourt scorer who averages more than 12 points per game or will get picked in the first round of the NBA draft.
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  • Rebounds better than 34 percent of its misses on the offensive end. (The cutoff was 37 percent, but because offensive rebounding is less of a priority, the number has dropped. More on this later.)
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  • Holds opponents to less than 45 percent shooting inside the arc.
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  • Has a defensive free-throw rate better than 34 percent. (Free-throw rate is the number of free throws attempted per field-goal attempt.)
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A reminder that only top-four seeds qualify. Connecticut in 2014 is the only champ seeded below the four line in the last 28 years, and as it relates to this blueprint, that never happened.

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Pedigree Tests

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Gonzaga gets a lot of flack for never reaching the Final Four, but Mark Few has been to six Sweet 16s and reached the Elite Eight two years ago.

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Three of the five coaches who haven’t reached an Elite Eight—Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton, UCLA’s Steve Alford and Purdue’s Matt Painter—have at least been to a Sweet 16.

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Coaches with previous Final Four experience do seem to have an advantage. Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014).

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The conference champ test has not been as important the last few years. UConn was the first since Arizona in 1997 to win the title without winning its league’s regular season or postseason, and then Duke did the same the next year. (The Blue Devils did go 15-3 in the ACC that year and finished just one game back of Virginia.) Villanova, the 2016 Big East regular season champ, was a return to the norm last season.

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Offensive Footprint

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The 2014 Huskies are the only team to finish outside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in the KenPom.com era (since 2002), so this is one of the most important boxes to check.

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Louisville, Baylor, Purdue and Florida State all fall short here, but that could quickly change with just one efficient night scoring the ball in the tournament. West Virginia was in the top 20 most of the season and has fallen off as of late.

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The Mountaineers rely a lot on their defense to create easy scoring opportunities, and since most tourney teams haven’t ever seen their press, they could return to earlier season form, which was aided by transition opportunities created by live-ball turnovers.

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While overall efficiency is what matters most, a majority of champs get there with accurate three-point shooting, an ability to rebound misses, balanced scoring and at least one scoring big man.

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(Note: As college basketball has trended smaller, many teams employ a small-ball 4 who would typically play on the wing. Those mini 4s still qualify as big men for this test.)

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Kansas is the only team that hits on both marks for three-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Most teams are either-or. The Jayhawks get it done by putting four shooters on the perimeter and then camping center Landen Lucas near the bucket. Lucas, who isn’t that quick or explosive like most elite rebounders, does an excellent job tracking where misses are going to come off. Josh Jackson is also a sneaky offensive rebounder because he can cover ground so quickly.

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The Jayhawks are also a rarity because most teams aren’t able to successfully crash the offensive glass with just one or two guys. Most coaches either decide to send everyone but their point guard to the glass or ignore offensive rebounding almost entirely to get back in transition. And if I were to reevaluate the blueprint—another Michigan State-like pick and I might—the offensive rebounding test is one I might ditch. I lowered the number from 37 percent to 34 percent last year because offensive rebounding numbers have trended downward in recent years, and so many teams are abandoning the glass that it almost makes the category irrelevant.

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Villanova is one of those teams that sacrificed the offensive glass for getting back in transition, and for the second straight year, Jay Wright’s club doesn’t come close to hitting the mark.

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Defensive Footprint

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Are there any 2015 Dukes in this field? First, let’s look at the numbers.

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UCLA would be the most unexpected of the group to make a massive improvement on the defensive end. The Bruins have been trending in a better direction late in the season but it’s hard to see them committing to defense so much so that they become dominant.

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Duke held opponents to 90.1 points per 100 possessions in that tourney run. The only major-conference foe UCLA held below that mark this season was lifeless Washington twice, and one of those games was played without Markelle Fultz.

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Oregon, Florida State, North Carolina, Arizona, Kansas and Duke have the personnel to jump into the top 20.

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The Ducks are the best shot-blocking team in the country but are now without leading shot-blocker Chris Boucher. Florida State has the length and athletes to be nasty on the defensive end. It’s a surprise the Seminoles aren’t consistently there already. Arizona is strong on the perimeter and has a defensive-minded coach in Sean Miller, but its bigs are not as gifted defensively as past ‘Zona interior players.

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Kansas could be the best candidate to pull a Duke. The Jayhawks seem to pick their spots to defend, but this group has been elite before—ranking third in adjusted efficiency last year—and Josh Jackson is the X-factor that Duke had in Justise Winslow. Winslow was a beast on the defensive end in the tournament in 2015, flying all over the floor as a small-ball 4. Jackson is a similar force with the versatility and defensive range to cause havoc.

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And even Duke could pull a 2015 Duke, especially if Harry Giles becomes more of a factor. Giles has the ability to be a stud on the defensive end. He just has been slow to adjust and not super confident in his surgically-repaired knees. He was once expected to be the No. 1 pick in 2017, and he has flashed some of the old Giles lately. But Mike Krzyzewski is so committed to playing small that it could be difficult to find more minutes for Giles. That means Jayson Tatum needs to do his best to pull a Winslow. 

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Results

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The top seeds usually fare better than most, but there is more of a divide this season than in years past. The sum of criteria checked for the ones (34) is higher than any other year I’ve run the numbers with 2013 (32) coming closest. That year a No. 1 seed (Louisville) won the title.

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Villanova checks just as many boxes as last season, but this team is slightly different. Like last year, Wright’s team falls short on the offensive glass. The Wildcats this season shoot it better from deep—although the tourney version of Nova did so too—and their two-point defense, which hit the mark last season, is not nearly as stingy. That’s one reason I’m not sure the Wildcats are as set to go on a deep run. Daniel Ochefu offered rim protection that this team doesn’t have.

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The data likes both Kansas and Gonzaga, which makes me feel good because those are the teams I have in the championship game in my bracket. I quickly feel not so good when I remember how the blueprint has performed the last four years.

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The Zags only fall short on the offensive glass, and again, that’s probably the least important criteria. KU’s unchecked box (adjusted defensive efficiency) is a more glaring shortcoming and KU’s commitment to defense in the tournament could control its fate.

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If you’re picking Florida State, Florida, West Virginia or Butler to win the title, you may want to rethink that selection.

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The last thing that should be noted is that every year I’ve done this—sans 2014, the tournament that didn’t really happen—the eventual champ has checked at least seven boxes.

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So your 2017 national champion will come from this group of schools: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Oregon or Baylor.

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And if it’s not, I give up.

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Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of KenPom.com. 

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C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.     

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Read more NCAA Tournament news on BleacherReport.com

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The Madness begins in Dayton, Ohio, with two games Tuesday and two more Wednesday providing an enticing appetizer for the excitement to come.

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Although the First Four is considered a preliminary round for teams that barely made it into the 68-team field, those games have proved to be the starting point for some storybook tournament runs.

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Last season, Wichita State emerged from a First Four victory over Vanderbilt to beat No. 6-seeded Arizona in the first round. Other First Four survivors have done more. Tennessee in 2014 and La Salle in 2013 both got to the Sweet 16 by winning three games in the first week.

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That pales in comparison to what Virginia Commonwealth did in 2011. Despite complaints that the Rams should not have been in the tournament at all, they got all the way to the Final Four by winning five straight games.

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The preliminary-round games likely to impact the rest of the tournament are the two involving the last four at-large teams to be selected: Wake Forest, Providence, USC and Kansas State. But the two contests featuring the four lowest-seeded teams of the tournament give these small-conference schools their one chance to shine on the national stage.

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What makes these games different from the first-round games later in the week is that each of the First Four participants plays an opponent with the same seed, making every game a virtual tossup that could come down to the last shot. That is what March Madness is all about.

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Predictions text written by Jake Curtis.

Begin Slideshow

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keyes-football”,”maryland-terrapins-football”,”michigan-wolverines-football”,”michigan-state-football”,”minnesota-golden-gophers-football”,”nebraska-cornhuskers-football”,”northwestern-football”,”ohio-state-football”,”penn-state-football”,”purdue-football”,”rutgers-football”,”wisconsin-badgers-football”],”pac-12-football”:[“arizona-wildcats-football”,”arizona-state-football”,”cal-bears-football”,”colorado-buffaloes-football”,”oregon-ducks-football”,”oregon-state-football”,”stanford-football”,”ucla-football”,”usc-football”,”utah-utes-football”,”washington-huskies-football”,”washington-state-football”],”sec-football”:[“alabama-crimson-tide-football”,”arkansas-razorbacks-football”,”auburn-football”,”florida-gators-football”,”georgia-bulldogs-football”,”kentucky-wildcats-football”,”lsu-football”,”ole-miss-football”,”mississippi-state-football”,”missouri-tigers-football”,”south-carolina-football”,”tennessee-volunteers-football”,”texas-am-football”,”vanderbilt-football”],”independents-football”:[“army-football”,”byu-football”,”notre-dame-football”],”golf”:[“golf”,”golf/teams”,”golf/archives”],”tennis”:[“tennis”,”tennis/teams”,”tennis/archives”],”boxing”:[“boxing”,”boxing/archives”,”sports-odds”],”more”:[“combat-sports”,”motorsports”,”outdoor-sports”,”more-sports”],”combat-sports”:[“boxing”,”mma”,”wwe”],”motorsports”:[“auto-racing”,”formula-1″,”nascar”,”indycar-series”],”outdoor-sports”:[“Action-sports”,”cycling”,”fishing”,”horse-racing”,”track-and-field”],”more-sports”:[“esports”,”cricket”,”rugby”,”rugby-league”,”wnba”,”womens-college-basketball”,”united-states-womens-national-team”,”united-states”,”cfl”,”college-baseball”,”lacrosse”,”sports-odds”],”topLevelLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”leagueLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”nonLeagueLinks”:[“trending”,”http://mag.bleacherreport.com/”,”https://www.stubhub.com/?gcid=chDIG-_-geoUS-_-genAllTix-_-dt170201-_-cmpBR_Main_Nav-_-partBleacherReport-_-mktgrBRAND”,”mobile”],”dropdownStack”:[],”leagueOverflow”:[],”links”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”:”url”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”title”:”Bracket 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New York Yankees
Joel ReuterFeatured ColumnistMarch 15, 2017

New York Yankees: The 5 Most Disappointing Players in Spring Training so Far

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    Rich Schultz/Getty Images

    It’s not all sunshine and bat flips this preseason.

    For every player exceeding expectations and making a name for himself, there’s an underperforming veteran making fanbases cringe or a fringe player hurting his chances of winning a roster spot.

    That’s certainly the case in the New York Yankees camp.

    While the performance of some of the team’s up-and-coming prospects and a healthy return to action for Greg Bird have been among the biggest stories, they have also had their fair share of lackluster individual performances.

    Ahead, we’ve highlighted five notable players who have disappointed so far this spring, including a member of the projected starting rotation and a potential trade candidate who is not helping his stock any.

1B Chris Carter

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    Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Projected Role: Backup 1B and occasional DH

    Spring Stats: 4-for-25, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 4 BB, 13 K

     

    Outlook

    With Greg Bird returning from a shoulder operation that cost him the entire 2016 season, the New York Yankees decided to take out an insurance policy in the form of Chris Carter on a one-year, $3.5 million deal.

    Despite tying for the NL lead with 41 home runs last season, Carter found limited interest on the free-agent market.

    That’s life for a one-dimensional slugger these days and Carter is just that as he hit .222 and also paced the NL with 206 strikeouts while offering nothing in the way of defensive value.

    An early-spring injury to Tyler Austin gave the signing some added significance, but so far this spring it’s been a lot of swinging at air for the newest Yankees power threat.

    Carter has fanned 13 times in 29 plate appearances, and he’s gone deep just once so far.

    While his spot on the Opening Day roster isn’t in jeopardy, it’s not out of the question to think he could be pushed to the side once Austin returns if his slow start carries over into the regular season.

RP Jonathan Holder

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    Elsa/Getty Images

    Projected Role: Triple-A depth

    Spring Stats: 5 G, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

     

    Outlook

    Minor league hitters didn’t stand a chance against Jonathan Holder.

    The 23-year-old worked 65.1 innings over three levels last season and pitched to a 1.65 ERA and 0.66 WHIP while posting a 101-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

    Once more, for effect: A 101-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

    The right-hander made his MLB debut in September and appeared in eight games down the stretch, putting him in prime position to make a run at a bullpen job this spring.

    However, his spring stats have been inflated by one rough outing (1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER) and in a tight race for the final bullpen spots that could be enough to cost him an Opening Day gig.

    Even if that’s the case, Holder is now on the 40-man roster, and he should be among the first players promoted when the bullpen needs extra arms.

SP Jordan Montgomery

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    Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

    Projected Role: Triple-A depth

    Spring Stats: 3 G, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

     

    Outlook

    The Yankees began spring training set for a four-man battle between Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell, Chad Green and Luis Cessa for the final two spots in the starting rotation.

    Jordan Montgomery was clearly on the outside looking in for a chance to break camp with a spot, but he was a dark horse worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.

    His performance last season in the upper levels of the minors warranted that much.

    The 24-year-old finished 14-5 with a 2.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 134 strikeouts in 139.1 innings, closing out the year with six terrific starts (5-1, 0.97 ERA) at the Triple-A level.

    Unfortunately, things have not gone as smoothly this spring. He’s been scored on in each of this three Grapefruit League appearances en route to a 5.68 ERA over 6.1 innings of work.

    That almost certainly punches his ticket back to Triple-A for the upcoming season, where he’ll be waiting in the wings as valuable rotation depth.

IF/OF Rob Refsnyder

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    Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

    Projected Role: Triple-A depth

    Spring Stats: 3-for-23, 2 RBI, 3 R, 3 BB, 9 K

     

    Outlook

    Maybe Rob Refsnyder just really wants to stay with the New York Yankees organization.

    That would make his 3-for-23 performance so far this spring a sound strategy amid trade rumors.

    According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Yankees have let clubs know they are willing to listen to trade offers for infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder,” wrote George A. King III of the New York Post earlier this month.

    Not long ago, Refsnyder was viewed as the potential second baseman of the future and one of the best young prospects in the organization.

    However, the farm system is now flush with talent and that includes middle infield prospects Gleyber Torres, Jorge Mateo and Tyler Wade, not to mention incumbent starters Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius.

    In other words, there’s no room for Refsnyder in the long-term plans.

    His dismal showing so far this spring has come at an inopportune time if the team hopes to find a taker on the trade market.

SP CC Sabathia

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    Rich Gagnon/Getty Images

    Projected Role: No. 2/3 starter

    Spring Stats: 2 GS, 2.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

     

    Outlook

    A slow start to the spring from a veteran starting pitcher is not always cause for alarm.

    However, in the case of a 36-year-old with a spotty track record of health and performance in recent years, it’s unsettling to say the least.

    Ladies and gentlemen, CC Sabathia.

    The left-hander returned to relevance last season after three consecutive rough years, going 9-12 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 179.2 innings of work.

    He’s no longer an ace, and he’s not worth anywhere close to the $25 million that the Yankees will be paying him this coming season, but they’re counting on him to help anchor the rotation alongside Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda.

    After a solid spring debut, he was lit up for six hits and six runs (four earned) in two-thirds of an inning his last time out.

    He still managed to walk away from the outing with some positives, namely the health of his right knee.

    The body feels good,” Sabathia said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN). “I was letting some (pitches) go, and I had no problems. As far as the knee, you want to get that out of the way. Make sure you can push off as hard as you can, land and be good. I wanted to accomplish that in the game and I did.”

    A strong follow-up performance would go a long way in easing the concerns of Yankee fans everywhere.

     

    All regular season stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while spring stats come via MLB.com.