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“,”duration”:35,”description”:null,”author_name”:”Team Stream Now”,”article_type”:”uber_article”,”analytics”:”video_id”:17663,”title”:”Are UNC Tar Heels the Favorite to Return to Glory in 2017 NCAA Tournament?”,”stream”:”Hale Irwin”,”published_at”:”2017-03-15T21:45:43.150000″,”id”:”73275948-4c86-4206-b85a-9b6499b5cfdf”,”amp_url”:null,”ad_stitched_url”:null,”media_width”:null,”media_url”:null,”media_id”:null,”media_height”:null,”hook_type”:”photo”,”autoplay”:false,”url_hash”:”f4a3a768b0c15a8f15557ca57592f677c29200420b86c6b1ce439c02112e1a1c”,”url”:”http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2696443-ncaa-basketball-championship-2017-who-best-fits-the-blueprint-of-a-winner”,”updated_at”:”2017-03-16T17:29:40Z”,”tag”:”unique_name”:”mm-related-content”,”tag_id”:97782,”short_name”:”MM RC”,”logo”:”mm_related_content.png”,”display_name”:”MM Related Content”,”color2″:””,”color1″:””,”status”:”active”,”position”:null,”playlist_type”:”ts”,”playlist_id”:957201,”permalink”:”/articles/track/6440316434-who-best-fits-the-championship-blueprint”,”performed_by”:”gmarchetti@bleacherreport.com”,”original_url_hash”:67610800,”notification”:null,”is_locked”:false,”is_featured”:false,”internal_position”:”5.6132812500″,”id_str”:”6440316434″,”id”:6440316434,”href”:”http://djay.bleacherreport.com/playlists/mm-related-content_ts/tracks/6440316434″,”hide_from_regions”:[],”hidden_attributes”:[],”group_tags”:[],”expires_at”:null,”created_at”:”2017-03-15T14:53:21Z”,”content_type”:”external_article”,”content”:”title”:”Who Best Fits the Championship Blueprint?”,”thumbnail_url”:”https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/664/107/hi-res-6041a74ec022f0ce26ed2bf1eaca26ee_crop_exact.jpg?w=900&h=600&q=75″,”metadata”:”title”:”NCAA Basketball Championship 2017: Who Best Fits the Blueprint of a Winner?”,”thumbnail_url”:”https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/664/107/hi-res-6041a74ec022f0ce26ed2bf1eaca26ee_crop_exact.jpg?w=900&h=600&q=75″,”provider_url”:”http://bleacherreport.com”,”provider_name”:”Bleacher Report”,”photo_credit”:”Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports”,”description”:”

After four months of basketball, you would think that a team typically is what it is.

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This exercise is done to identify the traits of a national champion by studying past champs. I identified 10 criteria that most champions fall under and put the top four seeds in each region through the gamut to see who has that championship look.

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But the last three national champs have taught us that it’s apparently never too late to change.

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In 2014, Connecticut looked nothing like a title contender. Any Huskies fans who want to raise their hands and say “I picked them” weren’t living in reality. 

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The Huskies were such an outlier I made the decision to not even study their numbers. It was a freak accident, and it was to be treated as such.

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But the last two years have also been unusual in that one criteria the eventual champ fell well short of meeting in the regular season became a huge strength in the postseason.

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In 2015, Duke went from playing meh defense for four months to unleashing one of the stingiest defenses in the history of the tournament. The Blue Devils entered the tourney ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency and finished 12th. That sort of jump over six games just does not happen.

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Last season, Villanova shot a bunch of threes but wasn’t very accurate, entering the tourney making 34.4 percent from deep—37 percent is the target in the blueprint. Somehow, the Wildcats all turned into Stephen Curry and plowed through the bracket nailing exactly 50 percent of their threes.

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This is a long way of saying that the results of this exercise should be considered in picking the champ, but we should also consider the possibility a team somehow changes in the middle of March.

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I’m also 0-for-4 using this data to pick the title winner.

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Last season, the numbers loved Michigan State, which was only the second team in four years to hit all 10 criteria. Sparty, of course, lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee.

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But to justify the sake of this exercise, the numbers did like Louisville in 2013, Duke in 2015 and Villanova last year, so the data is worth running. At least, that’s what I keep telling myself.

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Here are the 10 qualifications, which I’ve adjusted slightly through the years based on rule changes and trends: 

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  • Head coach has reached an Elite Eight.
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  • Team won either its regular-season conference title or conference tournament. (This rule could get replaced next season. Before UConn in 2014, every champ since 1990 except Arizona in 1997 had won a league title. Then last year’s champ failed to do so as well, making this qualifier moot for two straight years. But since UConn in ’14 never happened, the blueprint is currently chalking Duke up as an outlier.)
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Shoots better than 37 percent from beyond the arc.
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  • Has at least three double-digit scorers. (Allow rounding, so 9.5-plus qualifies.)
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  • Has a frontcourt scorer who averages more than 12 points per game or will get picked in the first round of the NBA draft.
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  • Rebounds better than 34 percent of its misses on the offensive end. (The cutoff was 37 percent, but because offensive rebounding is less of a priority, the number has dropped. More on this later.)
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  • Holds opponents to less than 45 percent shooting inside the arc.
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  • Has a defensive free-throw rate better than 34 percent. (Free-throw rate is the number of free throws attempted per field-goal attempt.)
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A reminder that only top-four seeds qualify. Connecticut in 2014 is the only champ seeded below the four line in the last 28 years, and as it relates to this blueprint, that never happened.

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Pedigree Tests

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Gonzaga gets a lot of flack for never reaching the Final Four, but Mark Few has been to six Sweet 16s and reached the Elite Eight two years ago.

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Three of the five coaches who haven’t reached an Elite Eight—Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton, UCLA’s Steve Alford and Purdue’s Matt Painter—have at least been to a Sweet 16.

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Coaches with previous Final Four experience do seem to have an advantage. Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014).

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The conference champ test has not been as important the last few years. UConn was the first since Arizona in 1997 to win the title without winning its league’s regular season or postseason, and then Duke did the same the next year. (The Blue Devils did go 15-3 in the ACC that year and finished just one game back of Virginia.) Villanova, the 2016 Big East regular season champ, was a return to the norm last season.

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Offensive Footprint

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The 2014 Huskies are the only team to finish outside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in the KenPom.com era (since 2002), so this is one of the most important boxes to check.

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Louisville, Baylor, Purdue and Florida State all fall short here, but that could quickly change with just one efficient night scoring the ball in the tournament. West Virginia was in the top 20 most of the season and has fallen off as of late.

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The Mountaineers rely a lot on their defense to create easy scoring opportunities, and since most tourney teams haven’t ever seen their press, they could return to earlier season form, which was aided by transition opportunities created by live-ball turnovers.

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While overall efficiency is what matters most, a majority of champs get there with accurate three-point shooting, an ability to rebound misses, balanced scoring and at least one scoring big man.

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(Note: As college basketball has trended smaller, many teams employ a small-ball 4 who would typically play on the wing. Those mini 4s still qualify as big men for this test.)

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Kansas is the only team that hits on both marks for three-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Most teams are either-or. The Jayhawks get it done by putting four shooters on the perimeter and then camping center Landen Lucas near the bucket. Lucas, who isn’t that quick or explosive like most elite rebounders, does an excellent job tracking where misses are going to come off. Josh Jackson is also a sneaky offensive rebounder because he can cover ground so quickly.

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The Jayhawks are also a rarity because most teams aren’t able to successfully crash the offensive glass with just one or two guys. Most coaches either decide to send everyone but their point guard to the glass or ignore offensive rebounding almost entirely to get back in transition. And if I were to reevaluate the blueprint—another Michigan State-like pick and I might—the offensive rebounding test is one I might ditch. I lowered the number from 37 percent to 34 percent last year because offensive rebounding numbers have trended downward in recent years, and so many teams are abandoning the glass that it almost makes the category irrelevant.

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Villanova is one of those teams that sacrificed the offensive glass for getting back in transition, and for the second straight year, Jay Wright’s club doesn’t come close to hitting the mark.

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Defensive Footprint

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Are there any 2015 Dukes in this field? First, let’s look at the numbers.

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UCLA would be the most unexpected of the group to make a massive improvement on the defensive end. The Bruins have been trending in a better direction late in the season but it’s hard to see them committing to defense so much so that they become dominant.

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Duke held opponents to 90.1 points per 100 possessions in that tourney run. The only major-conference foe UCLA held below that mark this season was lifeless Washington twice, and one of those games was played without Markelle Fultz.

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Oregon, Florida State, North Carolina, Arizona, Kansas and Duke have the personnel to jump into the top 20.

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The Ducks are the best shot-blocking team in the country but are now without leading shot-blocker Chris Boucher. Florida State has the length and athletes to be nasty on the defensive end. It’s a surprise the Seminoles aren’t consistently there already. Arizona is strong on the perimeter and has a defensive-minded coach in Sean Miller, but its bigs are not as gifted defensively as past ‘Zona interior players.

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Kansas could be the best candidate to pull a Duke. The Jayhawks seem to pick their spots to defend, but this group has been elite before—ranking third in adjusted efficiency last year—and Josh Jackson is the X-factor that Duke had in Justise Winslow. Winslow was a beast on the defensive end in the tournament in 2015, flying all over the floor as a small-ball 4. Jackson is a similar force with the versatility and defensive range to cause havoc.

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And even Duke could pull a 2015 Duke, especially if Harry Giles becomes more of a factor. Giles has the ability to be a stud on the defensive end. He just has been slow to adjust and not super confident in his surgically-repaired knees. He was once expected to be the No. 1 pick in 2017, and he has flashed some of the old Giles lately. But Mike Krzyzewski is so committed to playing small that it could be difficult to find more minutes for Giles. That means Jayson Tatum needs to do his best to pull a Winslow. 

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Results

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The top seeds usually fare better than most, but there is more of a divide this season than in years past. The sum of criteria checked for the ones (34) is higher than any other year I’ve run the numbers with 2013 (32) coming closest. That year a No. 1 seed (Louisville) won the title.

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Villanova checks just as many boxes as last season, but this team is slightly different. Like last year, Wright’s team falls short on the offensive glass. The Wildcats this season shoot it better from deep—although the tourney version of Nova did so too—and their two-point defense, which hit the mark last season, is not nearly as stingy. That’s one reason I’m not sure the Wildcats are as set to go on a deep run. Daniel Ochefu offered rim protection that this team doesn’t have.

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The data likes both Kansas and Gonzaga, which makes me feel good because those are the teams I have in the championship game in my bracket. I quickly feel not so good when I remember how the blueprint has performed the last four years.

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The Zags only fall short on the offensive glass, and again, that’s probably the least important criteria. KU’s unchecked box (adjusted defensive efficiency) is a more glaring shortcoming and KU’s commitment to defense in the tournament could control its fate.

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If you’re picking Florida State, Florida, West Virginia or Butler to win the title, you may want to rethink that selection.

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The last thing that should be noted is that every year I’ve done this—sans 2014, the tournament that didn’t really happen—the eventual champ has checked at least seven boxes.

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So your 2017 national champion will come from this group of schools: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Oregon or Baylor.

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And if it’s not, I give up.

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Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of KenPom.com. 

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C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.     

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Read more NCAA Tournament news on BleacherReport.com

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keyes-football”,”maryland-terrapins-football”,”michigan-wolverines-football”,”michigan-state-football”,”minnesota-golden-gophers-football”,”nebraska-cornhuskers-football”,”northwestern-football”,”ohio-state-football”,”penn-state-football”,”purdue-football”,”rutgers-football”,”wisconsin-badgers-football”],”pac-12-football”:[“arizona-wildcats-football”,”arizona-state-football”,”cal-bears-football”,”colorado-buffaloes-football”,”oregon-ducks-football”,”oregon-state-football”,”stanford-football”,”ucla-football”,”usc-football”,”utah-utes-football”,”washington-huskies-football”,”washington-state-football”],”sec-football”:[“alabama-crimson-tide-football”,”arkansas-razorbacks-football”,”auburn-football”,”florida-gators-football”,”georgia-bulldogs-football”,”kentucky-wildcats-football”,”lsu-football”,”ole-miss-football”,”mississippi-state-football”,”missouri-tigers-football”,”south-carolina-football”,”tennessee-volunteers-football”,”texas-am-football”,”vanderbilt-football”],”independents-football”:[“army-football”,”byu-football”,”notre-dame-football”],”golf”:[“golf”,”golf/teams”,”golf/archives”],”tennis”:[“tennis”,”tennis/teams”,”tennis/archives”],”boxing”:[“boxing”,”boxing/archives”,”sports-odds”],”more”:[“combat-sports”,”motorsports”,”outdoor-sports”,”more-sports”],”combat-sports”:[“boxing”,”mma”,”wwe”],”motorsports”:[“auto-racing”,”formula-1″,”nascar”,”indycar-series”],”outdoor-sports”:[“Action-sports”,”cycling”,”fishing”,”horse-racing”,”track-and-field”],”more-sports”:[“esports”,”cricket”,”rugby”,”rugby-league”,”wnba”,”womens-college-basketball”,”united-states-womens-national-team”,”united-states”,”cfl”,”college-baseball”,”lacrosse”,”sports-odds”],”topLevelLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”leagueLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”nonLeagueLinks”:[“trending”,”http://mag.bleacherreport.com/”,”https://www.stubhub.com/?gcid=chDIG-_-geoUS-_-genAllTix-_-dt170201-_-cmpBR_Main_Nav-_-partBleacherReport-_-mktgrBRAND”,”mobile”],”dropdownStack”:[],”leagueOverflow”:[],”links”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”:”url”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”title”:”Bracket 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UFC
Oct 8, 2016; Manchester, UK; Jimi Manuwa (blue gloves) enters the arena before his fight against Ovince Saint Preux during UFC 204 at Manchester Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Jonathan SnowdenCombat Sports Senior WriterMarch 17, 2017

On Saturday, the UFC returns to London, a city that has long been a hotbed of the sport. That in itself comes as no surprise. British fans flock to fill arenas whenever the UFC comes to town, often buying tickets before the fight card has even been announced. Their appetite for UFC action remains, apparently, insatiable.

What is a surprising, however, is UFC’s decision to provide these loyal, rabid fans with an afterthought of a show. Even the main event, a battle between mid-tier light heavyweights Jimi Manuwa (16-2) and Corey Anderson (10-2), is little better than a time filler.

Has it come to this? Has UFC’s continued expansion and obligations to both television and the hardcore fans who’ve purchased their streaming Fight Pass service doomed fans to a succession of lackluster cards from now until eternity?

Veteran MMA scribes Jonathan Snowden and Chad Dundas tackle the question that will make or break an entire sport.

 

Jonathan Snowden: London is one of the world’s great cities. When I lived in Europe, we would fly there once every couple of months to soak it all in. There were unparalleled cultural opportunities and a diverse, interesting population, with people from all over the world who had come together to make their stand against ignorance and assorted nonsense. And also to drink beer. All the beer.

Suffice to say, I have strong feelings for London. But even if you don’t particularly care one way or another, it doesn’t really matter. Because, I think we can all agree, London deserves better than this abysmal UFC card.

Any place would.

Whether you live in L.A. (Los Angeles or Lower Alabama) or in the wild mountains of Montana, your town is too good for this dreadful show.

Every time I think the UFC has reached new lows, it manages to surprise me. The sport has been stretched thin, to the point of breaking. Stars are few and far between, and the generation that built the business is fading athletically. Their replacements, it seems, are making a fashionably late entrance.   

I understand that intellectually. But my heart cries out all the same.

Jimi Manuwa—main eventer? Really? Arnold Allen vs. Makwan Amirkhani? I defy you to look me in the eye and pretend you know who those gentlemen are without a sneak peak at Tapology.

And they are on the main card!

The stunning O2 Arena.

The stunning O2 Arena.Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Right now, the UFC has a market desperate for mixed martial arts. The O2 Arena, which attracts more paying fans than any other indoor stadium in the world, will be packed from floor to ceiling. People are buying this dreck.

But for how long?

Is this sustainable Chad? Can UFC continue to rely on its brand to sell an increasingly dismal product, both to fans overseas and the most hardcore fans in North America via UFC Fight Pass? At some point, the straw will pile up to the point the camel will have no choice but to collapse, right?

 

Chad Dundas: Even amid the trickle of lackluster fight cards the UFC has rolled out to begin 2017, this one stands out. Someday, people are going to be flipping through a stack (or an internet slideshow) of UFC event posters, will see the one juxtaposing the big glossy photos of Manuwa and Anderson and think, “Wait, there must be some mistake here.”

We’re still in the backwash of the UFC’s lucrative 2016, a year in which it fired a lot of promotional bullets in order to smash its own all-time annual pay-per-view sales record. At this point, though, it’s mid-March. The first quarter of the year is almost up, and yet a glance at the upcoming UFC schedule shows TV events headlined by Demetrious Johnson vs. Wilson Reis, Cub Swanson vs. Artem Lobov and Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira.

By the time we get through that stretch, it’ll be the end of May!

Fans are eagerly awaiting Cormier's next appearance.

Fans are eagerly awaiting Cormier’s next appearance.Joshua Dahl-USA TODAY Sports

Granted, the mildly interesting UFC 210 (featuring Daniel Cormier’s light heavyweight title match against Anthony Johnson) is coming up on April 8, and then the fairly stacked two-title affair of UFC 211 on May 13, but still—this is a bad stretch for UFC.

It makes you feel for fans in London who jumped in early to buy tickets to see Fight Night 107 live, only to get walloped with a card that looks like something from the regional independent circuit that ought to air on AXS TV.

And you’re right, if I were a hardcore fan who was either attending this event or continuing to shell out a monthly subscription fee for Fight Pass, I’d be getting a little uneasy right about now.

If I were that fan, I’d love to know the long term strategy here. So far, new UFC owners at WME-IMG appear to be hacking away at the fight company’s roster—letting legitimate prospects like Kyoji Horiguchi and Nikita Krylov walk—while serving up a menu of fight cards that will be remembered as one of the worst in the UFC’s modern history.

It would be nice at some point for somebody to let us know where all this is headed, lest those hardcore fans do indeed start thinking about voting with their wallets.

What do you think, Jonathan, will the UFC turn it around in the second half of 2017? Or should we all start getting used to Manuwa vs. Anderson as the new normal?

 

Jonathan: I wish I had comfort to provide, but considering the state of the world these days, I’m fresh out. Perhaps, in some weird way, UFC is mimicking the broader world, replacing former matchmaker Joe Silva’s carefully considered order with random corporate chaos. 

Of course, UFC already had the loud-mouthed Twitter troll as president—so maybe life is imitating art after all?

Anyway, to actually answer your question, I’m afraid that things may not be getting better, because I’ve heard this song before. WME-IMG has a corporation’s soul. It’s dark, shriveled and crying out for cash like a zombie with eyes only for human brains.

WME-IMG, no doubt, sees how big boxing shows operate, with big main events surrounded by dreck and random television cards filled with prospects and the occasional has-been. They know that fight cards don’t have to be good to sell in quantity and have likely grasped that UFC could achieve the same financial return with much less effort and expense.

The departure of longtime matchmaker Joe Silva (center) dealt UFC a tough blow.

The departure of longtime matchmaker Joe Silva (center) dealt UFC a tough blow.Patrick Smith/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

They’ve perhaps even intuited Silva and former UFC owner Lorenzo Fertitta’s darkest fiscal secret—they were fight fans who wanted to create the kind of quality top-to-bottom shows fanboys love. WME-IMG doesn’t have love in its heart for great fights. Heck, despite what Citizens United told us, corporations don’t even have hearts. They are driven by profit, loss and justifying the $4 billion paid for UFC last year. Quality is not job one.

As long as UFC fans in London and elsewhere are willing to pay a premium for the UFC brand no matter how obscure the fighters entering the Octagon are, WME-IMG will be happy to oblige them. If the UFC can garner consistent ratings with relative unknowns, the bean counters will be pleased to water down the shows until they are little more than gruel.

The power here rests with the consumer. After all, if you squint hard enough, you can find reasons to pretend everything is OK. Look, it’s Tim Johnson, an enormous man with a mustache. Is that Gunnar Nelson? Yes please.

Are fight fans willing to watch this thing become boxing, aesthetically, if not in the cage? How hard are you willing to squint in order to pretend this is still the sport we fell in love with?

 

Chad: Honestly, man, I’m not sure I’m willing to squint much more than I already do. 

The fabric of this sport is vastly different now than when I found it. Things like the continually ballooning live event schedule, Reebok outfitting deal, Fight Pass and what in retrospect was a network television deal that asked the UFC to churn out an insane amount of content have all changed it—and not much of it for the better, in my opinion.

The vision you provide for the future of the sport is a sobering one, and all I can say is that I hope you’re wrong. I was initially bullish about the prospect of the WME-IMG era in the UFC, but the first few months of 2017 have moved me squarely into the undecided column.

I still think our new overlords can make this sport better. I’m just no longer sure they will.

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