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After four months of basketball, you would think that a team typically is what it is.

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This exercise is done to identify the traits of a national champion by studying past champs. I identified 10 criteria that most champions fall under and put the top four seeds in each region through the gamut to see who has that championship look.

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But the last three national champs have taught us that it’s apparently never too late to change.

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In 2014, Connecticut looked nothing like a title contender. Any Huskies fans who want to raise their hands and say “I picked them” weren’t living in reality. 

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The Huskies were such an outlier I made the decision to not even study their numbers. It was a freak accident, and it was to be treated as such.

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But the last two years have also been unusual in that one criteria the eventual champ fell well short of meeting in the regular season became a huge strength in the postseason.

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In 2015, Duke went from playing meh defense for four months to unleashing one of the stingiest defenses in the history of the tournament. The Blue Devils entered the tourney ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency and finished 12th. That sort of jump over six games just does not happen.

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Last season, Villanova shot a bunch of threes but wasn’t very accurate, entering the tourney making 34.4 percent from deep—37 percent is the target in the blueprint. Somehow, the Wildcats all turned into Stephen Curry and plowed through the bracket nailing exactly 50 percent of their threes.

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This is a long way of saying that the results of this exercise should be considered in picking the champ, but we should also consider the possibility a team somehow changes in the middle of March.

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I’m also 0-for-4 using this data to pick the title winner.

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Last season, the numbers loved Michigan State, which was only the second team in four years to hit all 10 criteria. Sparty, of course, lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee.

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But to justify the sake of this exercise, the numbers did like Louisville in 2013, Duke in 2015 and Villanova last year, so the data is worth running. At least, that’s what I keep telling myself.

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Here are the 10 qualifications, which I’ve adjusted slightly through the years based on rule changes and trends: 

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  • Head coach has reached an Elite Eight.
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  • Team won either its regular-season conference title or conference tournament. (This rule could get replaced next season. Before UConn in 2014, every champ since 1990 except Arizona in 1997 had won a league title. Then last year’s champ failed to do so as well, making this qualifier moot for two straight years. But since UConn in ’14 never happened, the blueprint is currently chalking Duke up as an outlier.)
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Ranks in the top 20 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.
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  • Shoots better than 37 percent from beyond the arc.
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  • Has at least three double-digit scorers. (Allow rounding, so 9.5-plus qualifies.)
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  • Has a frontcourt scorer who averages more than 12 points per game or will get picked in the first round of the NBA draft.
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  • Rebounds better than 34 percent of its misses on the offensive end. (The cutoff was 37 percent, but because offensive rebounding is less of a priority, the number has dropped. More on this later.)
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  • Holds opponents to less than 45 percent shooting inside the arc.
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  • Has a defensive free-throw rate better than 34 percent. (Free-throw rate is the number of free throws attempted per field-goal attempt.)
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A reminder that only top-four seeds qualify. Connecticut in 2014 is the only champ seeded below the four line in the last 28 years, and as it relates to this blueprint, that never happened.

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Pedigree Tests

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Gonzaga gets a lot of flack for never reaching the Final Four, but Mark Few has been to six Sweet 16s and reached the Elite Eight two years ago.

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Three of the five coaches who haven’t reached an Elite Eight—Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton, UCLA’s Steve Alford and Purdue’s Matt Painter—have at least been to a Sweet 16.

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Coaches with previous Final Four experience do seem to have an advantage. Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014).

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The conference champ test has not been as important the last few years. UConn was the first since Arizona in 1997 to win the title without winning its league’s regular season or postseason, and then Duke did the same the next year. (The Blue Devils did go 15-3 in the ACC that year and finished just one game back of Virginia.) Villanova, the 2016 Big East regular season champ, was a return to the norm last season.

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Offensive Footprint

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The 2014 Huskies are the only team to finish outside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in the KenPom.com era (since 2002), so this is one of the most important boxes to check.

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Louisville, Baylor, Purdue and Florida State all fall short here, but that could quickly change with just one efficient night scoring the ball in the tournament. West Virginia was in the top 20 most of the season and has fallen off as of late.

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The Mountaineers rely a lot on their defense to create easy scoring opportunities, and since most tourney teams haven’t ever seen their press, they could return to earlier season form, which was aided by transition opportunities created by live-ball turnovers.

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While overall efficiency is what matters most, a majority of champs get there with accurate three-point shooting, an ability to rebound misses, balanced scoring and at least one scoring big man.

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(Note: As college basketball has trended smaller, many teams employ a small-ball 4 who would typically play on the wing. Those mini 4s still qualify as big men for this test.)

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Kansas is the only team that hits on both marks for three-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Most teams are either-or. The Jayhawks get it done by putting four shooters on the perimeter and then camping center Landen Lucas near the bucket. Lucas, who isn’t that quick or explosive like most elite rebounders, does an excellent job tracking where misses are going to come off. Josh Jackson is also a sneaky offensive rebounder because he can cover ground so quickly.

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The Jayhawks are also a rarity because most teams aren’t able to successfully crash the offensive glass with just one or two guys. Most coaches either decide to send everyone but their point guard to the glass or ignore offensive rebounding almost entirely to get back in transition. And if I were to reevaluate the blueprint—another Michigan State-like pick and I might—the offensive rebounding test is one I might ditch. I lowered the number from 37 percent to 34 percent last year because offensive rebounding numbers have trended downward in recent years, and so many teams are abandoning the glass that it almost makes the category irrelevant.

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Villanova is one of those teams that sacrificed the offensive glass for getting back in transition, and for the second straight year, Jay Wright’s club doesn’t come close to hitting the mark.

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Defensive Footprint

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Are there any 2015 Dukes in this field? First, let’s look at the numbers.

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UCLA would be the most unexpected of the group to make a massive improvement on the defensive end. The Bruins have been trending in a better direction late in the season but it’s hard to see them committing to defense so much so that they become dominant.

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Duke held opponents to 90.1 points per 100 possessions in that tourney run. The only major-conference foe UCLA held below that mark this season was lifeless Washington twice, and one of those games was played without Markelle Fultz.

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Oregon, Florida State, North Carolina, Arizona, Kansas and Duke have the personnel to jump into the top 20.

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The Ducks are the best shot-blocking team in the country but are now without leading shot-blocker Chris Boucher. Florida State has the length and athletes to be nasty on the defensive end. It’s a surprise the Seminoles aren’t consistently there already. Arizona is strong on the perimeter and has a defensive-minded coach in Sean Miller, but its bigs are not as gifted defensively as past ‘Zona interior players.

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Kansas could be the best candidate to pull a Duke. The Jayhawks seem to pick their spots to defend, but this group has been elite before—ranking third in adjusted efficiency last year—and Josh Jackson is the X-factor that Duke had in Justise Winslow. Winslow was a beast on the defensive end in the tournament in 2015, flying all over the floor as a small-ball 4. Jackson is a similar force with the versatility and defensive range to cause havoc.

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And even Duke could pull a 2015 Duke, especially if Harry Giles becomes more of a factor. Giles has the ability to be a stud on the defensive end. He just has been slow to adjust and not super confident in his surgically-repaired knees. He was once expected to be the No. 1 pick in 2017, and he has flashed some of the old Giles lately. But Mike Krzyzewski is so committed to playing small that it could be difficult to find more minutes for Giles. That means Jayson Tatum needs to do his best to pull a Winslow. 

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Results

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The top seeds usually fare better than most, but there is more of a divide this season than in years past. The sum of criteria checked for the ones (34) is higher than any other year I’ve run the numbers with 2013 (32) coming closest. That year a No. 1 seed (Louisville) won the title.

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Villanova checks just as many boxes as last season, but this team is slightly different. Like last year, Wright’s team falls short on the offensive glass. The Wildcats this season shoot it better from deep—although the tourney version of Nova did so too—and their two-point defense, which hit the mark last season, is not nearly as stingy. That’s one reason I’m not sure the Wildcats are as set to go on a deep run. Daniel Ochefu offered rim protection that this team doesn’t have.

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The data likes both Kansas and Gonzaga, which makes me feel good because those are the teams I have in the championship game in my bracket. I quickly feel not so good when I remember how the blueprint has performed the last four years.

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The Zags only fall short on the offensive glass, and again, that’s probably the least important criteria. KU’s unchecked box (adjusted defensive efficiency) is a more glaring shortcoming and KU’s commitment to defense in the tournament could control its fate.

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If you’re picking Florida State, Florida, West Virginia or Butler to win the title, you may want to rethink that selection.

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The last thing that should be noted is that every year I’ve done this—sans 2014, the tournament that didn’t really happen—the eventual champ has checked at least seven boxes.

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So your 2017 national champion will come from this group of schools: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Oregon or Baylor.

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And if it’s not, I give up.

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Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of KenPom.com. 

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C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.     

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Read more NCAA Tournament news on BleacherReport.com

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The Madness begins in Dayton, Ohio, with two games Tuesday and two more Wednesday providing an enticing appetizer for the excitement to come.

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Although the First Four is considered a preliminary round for teams that barely made it into the 68-team field, those games have proved to be the starting point for some storybook tournament runs.

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Last season, Wichita State emerged from a First Four victory over Vanderbilt to beat No. 6-seeded Arizona in the first round. Other First Four survivors have done more. Tennessee in 2014 and La Salle in 2013 both got to the Sweet 16 by winning three games in the first week.

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That pales in comparison to what Virginia Commonwealth did in 2011. Despite complaints that the Rams should not have been in the tournament at all, they got all the way to the Final Four by winning five straight games.

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The preliminary-round games likely to impact the rest of the tournament are the two involving the last four at-large teams to be selected: Wake Forest, Providence, USC and Kansas State. But the two contests featuring the four lowest-seeded teams of the tournament give these small-conference schools their one chance to shine on the national stage.

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What makes these games different from the first-round games later in the week is that each of the First Four participants plays an opponent with the same seed, making every game a virtual tossup that could come down to the last shot. That is what March Madness is all about.

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Predictions text written by Jake Curtis.

Begin Slideshow

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keyes-football”,”maryland-terrapins-football”,”michigan-wolverines-football”,”michigan-state-football”,”minnesota-golden-gophers-football”,”nebraska-cornhuskers-football”,”northwestern-football”,”ohio-state-football”,”penn-state-football”,”purdue-football”,”rutgers-football”,”wisconsin-badgers-football”],”pac-12-football”:[“arizona-wildcats-football”,”arizona-state-football”,”cal-bears-football”,”colorado-buffaloes-football”,”oregon-ducks-football”,”oregon-state-football”,”stanford-football”,”ucla-football”,”usc-football”,”utah-utes-football”,”washington-huskies-football”,”washington-state-football”],”sec-football”:[“alabama-crimson-tide-football”,”arkansas-razorbacks-football”,”auburn-football”,”florida-gators-football”,”georgia-bulldogs-football”,”kentucky-wildcats-football”,”lsu-football”,”ole-miss-football”,”mississippi-state-football”,”missouri-tigers-football”,”south-carolina-football”,”tennessee-volunteers-football”,”texas-am-football”,”vanderbilt-football”],”independents-football”:[“army-football”,”byu-football”,”notre-dame-football”],”golf”:[“golf”,”golf/teams”,”golf/archives”],”tennis”:[“tennis”,”tennis/teams”,”tennis/archives”],”boxing”:[“boxing”,”boxing/archives”,”sports-odds”],”more”:[“combat-sports”,”motorsports”,”outdoor-sports”,”more-sports”],”combat-sports”:[“boxing”,”mma”,”wwe”],”motorsports”:[“auto-racing”,”formula-1″,”nascar”,”indycar-series”],”outdoor-sports”:[“Action-sports”,”cycling”,”fishing”,”horse-racing”,”track-and-field”],”more-sports”:[“esports”,”cricket”,”rugby”,”rugby-league”,”wnba”,”womens-college-basketball”,”united-states-womens-national-team”,”united-states”,”cfl”,”college-baseball”,”lacrosse”,”sports-odds”],”topLevelLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”leagueLinks”:[“http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”college-basketball”,”nba”,”nfl”,”world-football”,”mlb”,”nhl”,”mma”,”wwe”,”college-football”,”nascar”,”golf”,”tennis”,”boxing”,”more”],”nonLeagueLinks”:[“trending”,”http://mag.bleacherreport.com/”,”https://www.stubhub.com/?gcid=chDIG-_-geoUS-_-genAllTix-_-dt170201-_-cmpBR_Main_Nav-_-partBleacherReport-_-mktgrBRAND”,”mobile”],”dropdownStack”:[],”leagueOverflow”:[],”links”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”:”url”:”http://bracketchallenge.bleacherreport.com”,”title”:”Bracket 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Manchester United
Dean JonesFootball Insider at Bleacher ReportMarch 15, 2017

Why Paul Pogba Still Can’t Live Up to the Hype

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    GLYN KIRK/Getty Images

    Jose Mourinho claimed Paul Pogba was the best player on the pitch after Manchester United lost to Chelsea, but that view is not shared universally.

    In fact, many onlookers consider the former Juventus midfielder to be an £89 million flop on the back of his first seven months back at Old Trafford.

    As Pogba turns 24, he can no longer be judged as a young player with bags of potential, but simply as the world’s most expensive footballer.

    We decided to take a detailed view of the Pogba problem by speaking to experts who have watched him in live action for United, Juventus and the France national team to gauge just why United’s big summer signing is not fitting the bill…

     

He Needs a Formation to Suit Him

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    Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images

    Paolo Bandini is an Italian football expert who watched Pogba closely during his time at Juventus. He is a longtime believer that Pogba needs freedom in a midfield role:

    “I’ve been banging this drum ever since he signed for United, but he’s not a natural fit in Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1.

    “Both Max Allegri and Laurent Blanc tried him as a No. 10 and it didn’t work.

    “That was actually a huge talking point at the start of last season in Italy, because Pogba took on Juve’s No. 10 shirt and was briefly tried out behind the attack, before Allegri decided it was a terrible idea.

    “If you want to get the best out of him, you need to let him play box-to-box. He can’t do that as a No. 10, and he can’t do it as one of the two deep-lying midfielders either.

    “I actually don’t think he’s been as bad as some people are making out, but if you want him to look as good as he can, then you need to make the formation work for him. I think Mourinho has started to realise that recently.”

    Dean Jones’ view: This seems like the breakthrough United are looking for. The rest of the midfield need to adjust to suit Pogba, as he will shine if he can roam into positions rather than hold a defensive role. If United move closer to the way he was eventually used at Juventus it could very quickly end questions that are being asked about whether he was worth the money.

Living in Ibra’s Shadow

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    Dave Thompson/Associated Press

    Adam Digby, Bleacher Report’s Italian football correspondent, also spent many hours watching Pogba at Juventus.

    He highlighted how Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s role may be having a detrimental effect on Pogba:

    “I think about whether he produced in big games while in Italy, and it is a difficult question. But on the whole? Yes, he did.

    “Last season he was very flat through January and February, which may sound familiar to people watching him in the Premier League this season, but he then exploded in March and ended the campaign in fantastic fashion.

    “I’d say one reason he has not hit the same levels at United yet is because he is in a Zlatan Ibrahimovic team and his name is not Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

    “There’s a decade of evidence that the Sweden international’s presence forces other players into the background, with Jose Mourinho’s own teams hardly encouraging creative players to blossom.

    “People do need to remember that Pogba is a simply brilliant player. He will deliver his best soon enough, and those doubters will be left looking very foolish for dismissing his talent so quickly.”

    Dean Jones’ view: Statistically it has seemed he feeds well off Ibrahimovic, and Pogba has spoken publicly of his joy at playing in the same team as Zlatan. Yet we know that Mourinho sees Ibrahimovic as the most crucial figure in this team right now, and taking headlines away from a player who has 15 goals and four assists is not really an option. For now, Pogba has to accept playing second fiddle.

His Spot in the Team Is Too Safe

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    Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

    Steve Bates has covered Manchester United for over 35 years as a reporter for UK tabloid the Sunday People.

    He has watched Pogba closely all season and believes he may have been lucky to get so much playing time, as the consistent pace of English football seems to be at the root of his problems:

    “When he arrived people were expecting a player who could act like Roy Keane and dominate the midfield.  But United also wanted him to show the creativity that could open up an opposing defence. Neither of those traits have been seen enough despite having the time to make an impact. And he certainly has the platform, as United elevate him to superstar status.

    “He is rarely rotated out of the side while someone like Henrikh Mkhitaryan has regularly had to watch on, despite being one of the team’s most creative sparks.

    “I think one problem with Pogba is that teams give him so little time on the ball.

    “He likes to dwell on a pass and frequently I see him crowded out by two, or even three, players who know they can nick the ball back from him. Maybe in Italy he had more time in possession than he gets now.

    “I do think Pogba will come good but he has not lived up to his billing so far.”

    Dean Jones’ view: The point about rotation is spot on. Pogba has started 25 league matches this season and completed every single one. Even when he is not having influence, Mourinho is not willing to replace him.

    The stats show that he has completed 85.2 per cent of his passes this season, which does not seem too bad considering N’Golo Kante has a reading of 88.3 per cent, according to WhoScored.com.

    However, the fact he only has three Premier League assists shows that he has not been enough of a creative influence. He has been wasteful in front of goal, too, with 40 shots off target, compared to 30 on target.

He Overthinks Things in the Big Games

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    James Baylis – AMA/Getty Images

    Paul Ansorge is Bleacher Report’s Man United correspondent and a believer that Pogba has been one of United’s best players this season, having a major role in their best performances.

    He also has the view that having so much natural talent may actually be one of his biggest downfalls:

    “I think he struggles with the weight of expectation in big games. Patrice Evra said to La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t MailOnline) of him that his biggest problem is that he knows how good he is and tries to do too much when his team is in trouble and there’s been plenty of evidence of that.

    “There has also been some evidence of complacency—times when simplicity was called for and he instead took a more complex option—but that has paid off plenty of times too.

    “There is also the problem of his uncertain role within the team. There’s been a lot of chopping and changing around him which can’t have helped.

    “To get the best out of him I would just keep building a team around him, keep telling him he’s brilliant, keep reminding him he does not have to do everything on his own. There is no real long-term cause for concern here.”

    Dean Jones’ view: This is a point that was raised by Ibrahimovic earlier in the season to ESPN FC (h/t the Telegraph). He said Pogba seemed to be trying extra hard to live up to his price tag, and it still seems to be true. I wanted to see Pogba as a game-changer this season, but he has lacked those magical moments, and it is possibly because he is putting so much pressure on himself to make every key pass so special.

France Don’t Get the Best from Him

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    Michael Sohn/Associated Press

    Jonathan Johnson is a French football journalist based in Paris. He pointed out that Pogba’s failure to live up to his own hype is not a new issue, as the France national team also struggle to get the best from him.

    He believes it is because Pogba’s positioning is often unclear:

    “He has also been unable to deliver top performances with Les Bleus. Part of the reason for that is that Pogba has not been given a clear role by Didier Deschamps. Often he will be part of a three-man midfield, but he has also played as one of the two more defensive players in a 4-2-3-1.

    “One of the biggest issues is that both Blaise Matuidi and Pogba are more effective when played in the left central role, so it is essentially up to Deschamps to go with one or the other because it does not work with both.

    “Pogba’s most productive performances have come when he has played in more of a defensive-midfield position.

    “Something else that is often overlooked is how well he functioned alongside Andrea Pirlo while the pair were at Juventus. It could just be that while Pogba is still maturing, which he is no matter how good he already can be at times, he would benefit from regularly playing alongside a vastly experienced midfielder. Perhaps what Jose Mourinho needs most to get more out of Pogba is a Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the midfield.”

    Dean Jones’ view: This is an interesting area that has not been discussed in major detail this season: Pogba’s struggle on the international stage is similar to his lack of influence for United.

    The mention of Pirlo is also key as it brings up the next question: Who should his long-term midfield partner be at Old Trafford?

    Pogba is obviously an incredible talent but this account particularly shows that the challenge to bring out his full potential is clearly an issue he is more than familiar with.

     

    All comments obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.